Don't Pass on Passers

Trying to predict how the NFL draft is going to come out is like trying to predict a cat race. Every year, there are a couple of top players who are givens — this year it's LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell and Notre Dame's QB Brady Quinn — whom just about everyone seems to want. Trying to find a pattern in the rest of the draft is like trying to find a plot in an Antonioni film. Maybe this is because some of the people who do the drafting don't know the plot themselves.

For instance, the Detroit Lions' Matt Millen, who continues to escape charges of fraud despite writing the words "Team President" on his tax return every year. Millen has used the Lions' top 10 picks for wide receivers in the last three drafts and says that if Georgia Tech receiver Calvin Johnson is available when the Lions get the no. 2 pick this weekend, "I'd take him in a heartbeat. I wouldn't even think twice about it." This means that Millen hasn't thought twice about selecting busts like Charles Rogers and Mike Williams in previous drafts. I'll bet Matt Millen has not a clue as to why his team has lost 34 of 48 games over the last three seasons, winning fewer games each year.

What Millen is ignoring is the problem of how his team plans to get the ball to Calvin Johnson if the Lions should draft him. What he's saying is that if the Oakland Raiders should suddenly lapse into senility and choose someone other than Russell — or Quinn — then the Detroit Lions would still pick a wide receiver. Millen actually seems to believe that he can find the next Jerry Rice and that, somehow, through some suspension of the laws of the universe, that new Jerry Rice will lead the Lions to a Super Bowl without a Joe Montana to throw him the ball.

Here's some information Millen should consider: During the 10 previous drafts, only eight of the 41 wideouts picked in the first round of the draft have actually made it to the Pro Bowl. This isn't a knock on wide receivers. I'm not saying that top-level college wideouts aren't great. What I'm saying is that they're all great. Because of the simplicity of the requirements for being a wide receiver — basically all they have to do is catch the ball and run with it — and the talent available, there is no position in the game so easy to replace even a Pro Bowler. Quarterback, on the other hand, is not only the most important position by far on a pro football team, but the most difficult for which to find a superstar. And there is absolutely no question that by all available evidence, the two most likely future NFL superstar passers in this year's draft are Russell and Quinn.

Which man appears to be the bona fide can't-miss? Both Russell's and Quinn's credentials are so strong that those making a case for either are reduced to a series of hair-splittings. The major points of comparison are:

• SIZE. Russell is 6-foot-6 and at least 250 pounds — bigger than the NFL's budding superstar, Vince Young. Quinn is 6-foot-4, about 230. Quinn is not going to lose an NFL game because he isn't big enough. Russell, on the other hand, might have a problem keeping his weight down as he gets older.

• MOBILITY. Russell is much more mobile than Quinn, though in practical terms the difference is negligible. Russell was sacked 5.2 % of his attempts during the 2005 and 2006 seasons, while Quinn, playing behind an offensive line that was never very good, was sacked 5.6%.

• ARM STRENGTH AND ACCURACY. Most scouts maintain that Russell has a stronger arm than Quinn; certainly Russell's yards per throw average during the last two seasons, 8.5, is spectacular; Quinn's, at 8.0, is also superb. But Quinn, despite inferior blocking, has proved much less likely to get picked off — his interception percentage for 2005–06 was just 1.5% to Russell's 2.6%. Moreover, Quinn's touchdown-to- interception ratio during the last two years is an amazing 4.9-to-1, while Russell's is barely half that, 2.5-to-1.

• EXPERIENCE. Here Quinn has a decided edge with four years of starting at Notre Dame while Russell has been a starter for just a little more than two full seasons. It's being argued that Russell is a much better big-game quarterback, as witnessed by LSU's pounding of Notre Dame, 41–14, in the last Sugar Bowl. Although Quinn was 0–5 against ranked teams in the last two years, his offense put up an average of 22 points against them, while Russell, who was 6–3 against ranked teams in that period, averaged just 20 points a game.

Defense made the difference in big games with Russell's and Quinn's teams, not offense. And in the NFL, barring some big trade, neither guy is going to be playing on a team with very good defenses, especially not Oakland and Detroit. JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn are probably hoping that the NFL brain trusts on the teams with the early picks stay brain dead and pass them up, thus bettering their chances to wind up on teams with some blocking and defense. If that happens, the wide receiver situation will take care of itself.

Mr. Barra is the author of "The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear' Bryant."