Djokovic May Be Federer's Heir Apparent

Novak Djokovic, the 19-year-old Serbian who won the Sony Ericsson Open yesterday, may not win a Grand Slam title this year, or next year, or for as long as Roger Federer remains healthy and motivated. But when Federer does begin to fade, Djokovic is the mostly likely candidate to replace him atop the tennis world.

The young Serb with the effortless strokes dismissed Federer's most recent nemesis, Guillermo Canas, in straight sets in the Sony Ericsson final, 6–3, 6–2, 6–4. Earlier in the week, he beat Rafael Nadal, to whom he had lost in the final of the Pacific Life Open two weekends ago. He also pummeled his friend and boyhood rival, Andy Murray, 6–1, 6–0. Djokovic did not lose a set the entire tournament and won 59 of 60 service games, a performance so dominant that only Ivan Lendl, who won every set he played in 1989, might say he won this title with greater ease. Djokovic is now the youngest man ever to win this event, an honor he stole from the 1990 champion, a 19-year-old by the name of Agassi.

How does Djokovic compare to the 19-year-old Agassi? He's far, far better. The chief reason is that Djokovic has a wonderful mind for tennis. Unlike Agassi, who did a lot more hitting than thinking in his early days, Djokovic plays with purpose on every point. Canas is a fit and frustrating opponent, the sort of athlete who can coax Federer into 51 unforced errors in three sets. Djokovic made 30 yesterday against 44 winners. For most of the match, he hit mediumpaced shots with lots of topspin. He mixed in backhand slices, and hit dozens of short, spinning angles that forced Canas far to his left or right. When those angles created openings, Djokovic had plenty of power on both his forehand and two-handed backhand (his best shot) to end points. By the end of the afternoon, Canas, who grabbed his hamstring off and on and received treatment for it, looked as if he had run about 10 more miles than Djokovic (Djokovic was not exactly fresh and wisely approached the net more often, shortening the points, as he tired).

Djokovic is not only superior to the young Agassi in mind but in strokes, too. He needs to improve his backhand slice, and his volleys often lack depth and bite. Although he has a fine drop shot, he perhaps relies on it too often. But for a 19-year-old whose game is not serveand-volley, he already volleys adequately (he's been working with doubles expert Mark Woodforde). He moves exceptionally well (he, like Federer, often seems to glide) and has more patience than most young players with enough raw power to hit lots of winners. His serve is a fine combination of power (close to 140 mph at times) and finesse (he often hits spin serves as first serves, hits a top-notch second serve that kicks very high, and places all his serves well).

He's also tough in tense moments. Against Nadal, he closed out the match after fighting off three break points. Against Canas, he survived a 22-minute game, and a 38-stroke rally on break point, in the second set to prevent Canas from tying the score at 3–3. As Canas knocked one groundstroke after another deep into the court, Djokovic moved him side to side and set up a winning point with a crosscourt forehand hit as slowly, and at as sharp an angle, as one will ever see in men's tennis. It looked more like table tennis.

As of today, Djokovic is ranked inside the top 10 for the first time in his career (no. 7). In tennis, youthful success is a good indicator of future performance: 17 men besides Djokovic have moved inside the top 10 ranking as teenagers since the tour created a ranking system in 1973, and among them are most of the best players of the last 30 years. As a group, they have won 66 Grand Slam titles. The first one to win a major, Bjorn Borg, did so at the French Open in 1974 (he was 18). Including that tournament, the world has seen 132 majors through this year's Australian Open, so our 17 top teenagers have won half of the most important events in the sport since Borg won his first.

There are exceptions, of course. Federer, who was not a teenage top 10, has won 10 of the other 66 majors. Aaron Krickstein, the youngest top 10 player (age 17 years and 11 days), didn't win one. Neither did Andre Medvedev, Jimmy Arias, or Kent Carlsson. Michael Chang, the second youngest, won only one.

Djokovic certainly seems more like the great teenagers of the past — Pete Sampras, Borg, Agassi, Mats Wilander, John McEnroe, Boris Becker, and Stefan Edberg among them — than those whose bright futures quickly dimmed. As well-rounded as this young man's game is right now, it's easy to imagine him doing all things better: more forceful shots, fewer mistakes, better volleys, more accurate serves. It would be great if he could develop such range, and consistency, while Federer remains at his best.

***

Serena Williams and Justine Henin had not played in nearly four years when they met at the Sony Ericsson final this past weekend. Williams saved two match points and won in three sets, but more important, the two of them reminded us what we have been missing since Williams all but disappeared from tennis a few years ago. Neither woman played her best, but the quality of the competition was first rate. Williams, still not in optimal physical condition, is more enjoyable to watch than ever. She clearly wants to play, and if her lack of fitness gives opponents a chance to stay with her, the better for fans. Henin choked when serving for the match but was uncharacteristically gracious in defeat (she cheated Williams at the French Open in 2003, and Williams has not forgotten). Perhaps we'll only have to wait several weeks, rather than years, for the next encounter.

tperrotta@nysun.com