Bucks, More Than Celtics, Will Test Knicks' Mettle

Talk about contrasts: The Knicks' next two opponents, the Boston Celtics tonight and the Milwaukee Bucks tomorrow, will offer two distinctly different takes on where the locals are going.

Only Knicks fans who think they can put a hex on Celtics forward Kevin Garnett and guard Ray Allen believe that the team can actually go up to TD Banknorth Garden and beat the men in green. And while a hex might explain how Allen — who makes 89.4% of his free throws — could have missed two from the charity stripe late in Tuesday night's loss to the Cavaliers, it simply isn't likely that the 11–2 Celtics will lose to the Knicks in Boston.

Instead, let's look at another angle. Are these Celtics the team the Knicks might have been? While Knicks fans everywhere pine for a savior, the Celtics actually dealt for two of them this summer in Allen and Garnett. They did so because their roster was chock full of young players with solid potential and they had cap flexibility. Since when has that described the Knicks? Well, Isiah Thomas took over the Knicks' front office only a few months after Danny Ainge took a parallel position in Boston. What if Thomas had taken Ainge's approach of rebuilding through the draft, only adding veterans on the cheap? That would mean there wouldn't have been a Stephon Marbury trade, a Stevie Francis trade, an Eddy Curry trade, a Jamal Crawford deal, and absolutely, certainly not signings for Jerome James or Jared Jeffries. Instead, bad contracts like Allan Houston, Antonio McDyess, and Jerome Williams would have been allowed to age off the books. This would have meant that the Knicks would have been really bad for a few years (yes, probably worse than they've been). But last summer, the Knicks would have been a young team with cap flexibility.

Of course, the ability to make such moves would have entailed a long-term plan. When he took over, Ainge announced he wanted to rebuild the Celtics into a young and athletic team. When that didn't work, he about-faced with much more quickness and speed than he ever possessed as a player, and created the current behemoth. The chairman of the Knicks, James Dolan, obviously demanded no such deep thinking from Thomas, and allowed a series of shortsighted instant gratification moves that pushed the Knicks deeper into salary cap hell without getting the team over .500.

With the Celtics leading the league in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), and ranking sixth in offensive efficiency, it's hard to imagine the Knicks (26th on defense and 24th with the ball) having much chance to beat Boston. But, Knicks fans can watch and wonder what might have been.

On the other hand, the Bucks should offer a solid grounding in reality for the Knicks. If the Bucks are to be even remotely relevant this season, this is the kind of game that they have to win. Yes, the Bucks have a winning record (7–5 going into last night's action), and they have a budding player in forward Yi Jianlian. But their success is mostly illusory; this is a team that the Knicks should beat. The Bucks' overall numbers mask a good many deficiencies. They have been outscored, which should leave them with a losing ledger, rather than a winning one. Also, while they boast a decent offense, (12th in the league in offensive efficiency), they have a defense almost as bad as the Knicks (24th). They hired Larry Krystkowiak as coach late last season in an effort to prove their defense, but so far he's had minimal effect. It's easy to note that the Bucks have still won almost twice as many games as the Knicks, but it's all about location, location, location. The Bucks are 6–1 at the Bradley Center, and only 1–4 on the road. If the Knicks are to overcome this bad start, defending home court will be essential.

Lastly, while Yi has been the early favorite for the Rookie of the Year award, let's not start prepping him for greatness. It's a weak year for rookies so far (which is strange, since it was such a promising draft class). Kevin Durant is doing his best Adam Morrison imitation, Mike Conley is injured, and Al Horford, Brandan Wright, Joakim Noah, and other lottery picks have failed to get major minutes. Yi's numbers, 10 points and six rebounds in 26 minutes per game, are far from prepossessing. Right now, he's setting a low bar for the prize. It's more likely that someone will break out in midseason and render this quandary moot.

So, the Knicks' Friday opponent can't win on the road, can't play defense, and boasts a rookie power forward who isn't as good as his hype. Zach Randolph should outplay Yi, and his teammates should put a point total like the 113 they plopped on Utah. Although tonight's game in Boston is a long shot at best for New York, tomorrow night's contest should be an easy win. If it isn't, then brace yourself for another round of hysteria.

mjohnson@nysun.com