Saddam's Sentence Is an Election Wild Card

On the eve of tomorrow's midterm elections, the long-grim outlook for Republicans is brightening slightly with last-minute polls suggesting that President Bush's party may be able to hang on to control of the Senate even as the House of Representatives falls into Democratic hands.

The perceived tightening came as a guilty verdict and death sentence handed down yesterday against the deposed Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, threw another wild card into the final hours of a race already squarely focused on the Iraq war.

Surveys showed movement toward Republican candidates in Tennessee, Montana, and Rhode Island, leaving Democrats facing an uphill battle to pick up the six seats they need to win the Senate. Many political analysts now expect that body to wind up evenly split between the parties. Under that scenario, Republicans would remain in control by means of Vice President Cheney's tie-breaking vote.

"That's kind of my guess.I think that's entirely possible," an analyst with the Cook Political Report, Jennifer Duffy, said of the prospect of a 50–50 Senate.

Democrats were likely to make strong gains in the Senate, Ms. Duffy added, but they may have grown too exuberant in recent days. "I think seven seats, which some people were giddily discussing at the end of last week, is probably out of the question. Six seats is still doable. It's just more difficult," she said.

"We're right on the edge of taking back the Senate," Senator Schumer of New York, who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said yesterday on NBC's "Meet the Press." "We're going to be happy Wednesday morning."

"We'll maintain the majority," Senator Dole of North Carolina, the chief of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted on the same program.

Ms. Duffy stressed that the recent polling suggested only a slight uptick for the GOP. "These races are still close," she said. "In most cases, what you're seeing are Republicans going home."

There was no indication that the last-minute trend is sufficient to stave off Republican loss of the House, where Democrats are expected to pick up the 15 seats needed for control and perhaps as many as 40 seats.

For Democrats, the most troubling aspect of the recent polls is the apparent slippage of the party's Senate candidate in Tennessee, Rep. Harold Ford Jr. While some surveys taken in October showed Mr. Ford leading or even with the Republican candidate, Robert Corker Jr., more recent surveys found Mr. Corker up by a margin of 4% to 12%.

At a rally with Senator Obama of Illinois yesterday, Mr. Ford attempted to stave off dejection among his backers by telling them that a USA Today survey to be released today showed him trailing Mr. Corker by just 3%.

In Montana, late momentum seemed to be shifting to the embattled Republican incumbent, Senator Burns, from the Democratic challenger, Jon Tester. A Mason-Dixon poll released yesterday had the candidates tied, with 47% apiece. Most surveys taken in October had Mr. Tester from 3% to 11% ahead of Mr. Burns, who has been pummeled for his ties to a corrupt Washington lobbyist, Jack Abramoff.

Republican strategists also saw an unexpected ray of hope in Rhode Island, where Senator Chafee, one of the party's most liberal lawmakers, may be battling back against his Democratic challenger, Sheldon Whitehouse. A new Mason-Dixon poll found Mr. Chafee leading his opponent by 46% to 45%, within the survey's margin of error. That was the first public poll since August to suggest Mr. Chafee might be ahead of Mr. Whitehouse, who enjoyed double-digit leads in two polls taken late last month.

Though only a single public poll shows Mr. Chafee back in contention, Ms. Duffy said the new results are probably accurate and reflect negative voter reaction to a confusing answer Mr. Whitehouse gave to a debate question last Monday about casino gambling, an issue that is the subject of a referendum on the ballot tomorrow in the Ocean State. "He kind of flip-flopped," Ms. Duffy said. Aides to Mr. Whitehouse, a former state attorney general, said there was no reversal, but the casino flap has received intense coverage in the Rhode Island press.

The late polling also contained some good news for Democrats. In New Jersey, a last-minute, $3.5 million advertising buy by Republicans does not appear to have put a dent in support for Senator Menendez, a Democrat. Four polls taken late last week showed Mr. Menendez ahead of the Republican nominee, Thomas Kean Jr., by between 3% and 8%.

The balance of power in the Senate could hinge on races in Virginia and Missouri that continued to be neck-and-neck. According to the latest wave of public polls, the Democratic challenger in Virginia, James Webb, was even with or perhaps even slightly ahead of the incumbent Republican, Senator Allen. The Missouri contest, between a Republican, Senator Talent, and his Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill, may also be leaning ever so slightly to the Democrats.

GOP strategists were also hopeful yesterday that their Senate candidate in Maryland, Michael Steele, is rallying against the Democratic nominee, Rep. Benjamin Cardin.

The Iraq war continued to stir the most fiery exchanges from the candidates and their backers, especially in the wake of yesterday's death sentence for Saddam. Mr. Bush touted the verdict during a campaign rally yesterday for Republican House candidates in Nebraska. "Saddam Hussein's trial is a milestone in the Iraqi people's efforts to replace the rule of a tyrant with the rule of law, and it's a major achievement for this young democracy," Mr. Bush said to applause. "We got one goal in Iraq, and that is victory."

The Republicans' Senate campaign chief, Elizabeth Dole, suggested yesterday that Democrats were happy to acquiesce in an American defeat in Iraq. "It's like they're content with losing because to pull out, to withdraw from this war is losing," she said on NBC.

Mrs. Dole's Democratic counterpart, Mr. Schumer, said her comments were an unfair attempt at "knee-capping" Democrats. He said of Iraq, "The only people who seem to be thinking it's going well are the president and his coterie of advisers."

While Republicans accused Democrats of having no coherent or unified policy on Iraq, another voice in the GOP called yesterday for an escalation of the war.

"I don't think we've ever had enough troops on the ground. The goal is to have more troops," Senator Graham of South Carolina said on CNN's "Late Edition." Asked to give a specific number, the senator said he was unsure. "I'm not a battlefield commander, but I do have common sense. You'll never convince me that the security apparatus that we have in place now is working. We need more Iraqi troops. We need more American troops, coalition troops, in the short-term. To have a democracy, you can't have this level of violence."

Senator Boxer, a Democrat of California, said Mr. Graham's assessment was right, but his prescription was wrong. "I agree with him that we're seeing chaos, but I think what he is doing is taking American ownership of this sovereign nation, 60% of whom say it's okay to shoot an American. And he wants to send more Americans there?" she asked.