Romney Victory May Be a Boon for Giuliani

Mitt Romney's presidential primary victory in Michigan would appear to be playing into the hands of Mayor Giuliani, who has always insisted that he needs a divided and confused Republican field in order to prosper.

With his enemies scattered and each state picking a different winner, Mr. Giuliani's unconventional big state strategy — to ignore the early primary states and concentrate instead on delegate rich Florida, which votes January 29 — could be paying off.

All he needs is a win in the Sunshine State to bounce him into pole position for Super Tuesday on February 5, when a clutch of other big prize states, including California, New Jersey, and his own New York, cast their votes.

Certainly he appears chipper. "Am I nervous at all? Do I look nervous? I am having a great time," the former New York City mayor told Fox News yesterday, his trademark grin lighting up his campaign bus.

But the irrepressible Mr. Giuliani still has a lot to be twitchy about. The Michigan result delivers much-needed positive press coverage and renewed confidence to Mr. Romney, whom Mr. Giuliani considered his most dangerous rival before the race began.

Mr. Romney won on Tuesday by riding a wave of voter anxiety about the economy, which Mr. Giuliani is seeking to counter with his own Florida-only television ad, released yesterday, promising "the biggest tax cut in modern history." In a battle over who can manage a broken economy, however, Mr. Romney's financial experience could give him the edge.

Mr. Giuliani's strategy director, Brent Seaborn, remains upbeat and, as the storm clouds gather over Florida, offers a suitably Churchillian response. If the campaign is currently enduring what may seem its "darkest days," then everything is going according to plan, he told the New York Times. Although the Republican field is engulfed in the chaos needed for Mr. Giuliani's success, with no front-runner and little clear indication of what party members are looking for in a candidate, the former mayor does not appear to be benefiting quite yet. His poll numbers are sinking fast, both nationally and in Florida.

Still, in the absence of any alternative plan, he insists he is on the right track. "This is a strategy we selected. It is the strategy that we believe in. To the extent we can analyze it now, it is the only strategy that can work for us. And it's a good one," he told Fox.

"We are going to talk about other things here which will resound all over the country," he said. "And given the nature of this race, which is wide open, we think it is going to turn out to be a smart, a good strategy. Of course, you only know that when it is all over."

Mr. Giuliani has always contended that he and he alone can beat Senator Clinton in a general election. Not only has it become far from certain that Mrs. Clinton will be the Democratic candidate, his bluff is being called by the most recent polling.

Having been the Republican general election favorite for the whole of 2007, Mr. Giuliani is no longer the national front-runner, the two most recent national voting surveys, concluded on Sunday, show.

The former mayor slipped to third place, with 13% support, behind Senator McCain at 33% and Michael Huckabee at 19% in the Gallup poll for USA Today. And he slid to fifth with 9%, well behind Mr. McCain with 28%, Mr. Huckabee with 23%, Fred Thompson with 14%, and Mr. Romney with 13% in the poll by Zogby for Reuters.

Putting all his chips on Florida is a high stakes gamble. A voting survey in the Sunshine State published Monday resulted in what pollsters for SurveyUSA describe as "a four-way free-for-all," though they note that "Giuliani rebounds ever-so-slightly."

There was no such silver lining for him in a Quinnipiac poll published the same day, which also showed a four-way dead heat. It noted that over the previous month Mr. McCain had gained nine points, while Mr. Giuliani, who was in the lead in December, lost eight points.

The entrails of the polls, however, offered some grounds for optimism in the Giuliani camp. "Those voters still with Giuliani are the most committed as a group to any of the four leaders," Quinnipiac's assistant director, Peter Brown, reported.

And SurveyUSA showed Mr. Giuliani gaining support from what New Yorkers, who remember the former mayor as an often divisive figure among minority groups, will consider a most unlikely quarter: Hispanic voters, who make up 15% of likely Republican voters in Florida. He is attracting just over half of the state's largely American-Cuban population who intend to vote Republican.

Mr. Seaborn is holding fast to his belief that everything will come right on the night of January 29. "We all know this is a real close race, but I think by the time the circus comes to town it will be Rudy Giuliani versus a field of candidates that will be seen as flawed in some way," he told NBC.