Rising in Polls, Huckabee Could Be GOP's Dark Horse of 2008

The quiet man of the Republican presidential race, Mike Huckabee, is becoming the dark horse social conservative candidate who could end up trouncing his better known, better funded rivals.

In a poll of Iowa Republicans published yesterday, the former governor of Arkansas is neck and neck with Mayor Giuliani in a tie for second place behind Mitt Romney, who has spent tens of millions including an injection of his personal wealth to establish his lead in the bellwether state.

The Hawkeye poll, conducted by the New University of Iowa, shows Mr. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, in the clear lead with 36.2% support.

But in a statistical tie for second place, Mr. Huckabee is at 12.8%, while the former New York mayor has 13.1%. A former Tennessee senator, Fred Thompson, comes fourth with 11.4%, and Senator McCain of Arizona is fifth, with 6%.

Mr. Huckabee's current strength is seen in the 10% spurt he has had since the summer. In an identical poll in August, Mr. Huckabee attracted just 1.8%.

While Mr. Romney steadily has improved his lead over the rest of the field, Mr. Giuliani began in March with 20.3% before slumping in August to 11.7%, then making a small recovery this month. Mr. McCain, who began as the Iowa front-runner in March with 20.9%, slumped to just 3.1% in August before making a slender improvement this month.

Mr. Huckabee's rapid rise in the Iowa poll is matched by a similar surge in the latest national opinion surveys. On Friday, Rasmussen put Mr. Giuliani at 20%, Mr. Thompson at 19%, Mr. McCain at 14%, and Mr. Huckabee just behind at 12%. Mr. Romney, whose expensive advertising budget appears to account for much of his Iowa lead, registered just 11%.

"What we're seeing is the power of message over money and mechanics," Mr. Huckabee said in a statement on hearing the result. He has spent just $1.7 million on advertising; Mr. Romney has spent $53.6 million, and Mr. Giuliani has spent $30.2 million as of September 30, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

The former Arkansas governor warmed to the giant-killer theme on Sunday when asked by Wolf Blitzer on CNN what he had to do to break into the top tier. "I think we're in that top tier," Mr. Huckabee said. "I mean, if the Rasmussen polls, if the surge that we're seeing in terms of online support, heck, I mean, I've got the endorsement this week of [the actor] Chuck Norris. Now people are going to be afraid not to support me."

He said he had learned one thing from spending time in the largely rural state of Iowa: Hunters only take aim at something that is ahead of them and still alive. The fact that the other Republican candidates were now turning on him showed he was making headway in a tight race, he said.

Mr. Huckabee, an ordained Southern Baptist minister, has found a ready audience among Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, of whom 44% term themselves Evangelicals or born-again Christians. He has made a virtue of his lack of funds and derided those, like Mr. Romney, who have spent a fortune gaining recognition and support.

"If I were some of these guys who had spent tens of millions of dollars and weren't any further ahead, I would have to be sitting in a warm tub of water with some razor blades in both hands at this point, saying, how much money does one have to spend … to get on track?" Mr. Huckabee said in the Orlando GOP debate on October 21.

Mr. Huckabee's appeal to Republicans has gathered strength as commentators of both right and left have begun to depict him as a strong outside chance in a race that has not yet established a clear front-runner.

William Kristol, the editor of the Weekly Standard magazine, has written a scenario in which Mr. Huckabee beats Mr. Romney, or comes a close second, in Iowa, before beating Mr. Thompson in New Hampshire. Spurred by his success, he begins attracting donations and mobilizes his Southern supporters to trounce Mr. Giuliani.

Larry Eichel of the Philadelphia Inquirer described Mr. Huckabee as the "emerging choice of rank-and-file social conservatives." "He's an engaging speaker, a plainspoken man with populist leanings," and "could have an impact" if he starts attracting money, Mr. Eichel wrote.

In a column last week, Dick Morris, President Clinton's former aide who in 1992 was an adviser to Mr. Huckabee, painted Mr. Huckabee as "the most interesting phenomenon in either party's race" and "a gripping, humorous, passionate orator [who] brings a spiritual dimension to public-policy problems."

"This is a guy who brought the house down at the Values Voter Summit, wins or comes close to winning every debate, shocked everyone by placing second in the Ames, Iowa, straw poll, and is now inching toward the top of the polls in the Iowa caucuses," Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist in Harrisburg, told the Pittsburgh Tribune Review.