Publishers Abuzz Over Possible Rumsfeld Book

The publishing world is abuzz over the news that a former defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, may write a memoir justifying the military strategy for the war in Iraq. While a deal has not yet been struck, Mr. Rumsfeld has toured New York publishing houses with an outline of his book in an effort to gauge how much information he would have to disclose in the memoir in order to justify a large cash advance.

A principal for the publicity firm Shirley & Banister, Craig Shirley, said such a book would have a better-than-fair shot of becoming a bestseller if it was properly marketed, well-written, and contained interesting new content. In addition, the publisher of the conservative imprint Regnery, Marji Ross, estimated the former secretary would command at least a six-figure advance. Someone like Mr. Rumsfeld, who has a loyal following and yet sparks a lot of controversy, is good for book sales, she said.

A former spokesman for Mr. Rumsfeld, Lawrence di Rita, who is familiar with the former defense secretary's activities, said the primary focus of Mr. Rumsfeld, who resigned from the Bush administration last year, has been the planning of a new educational foundation, and that the ex-defense chief has not made a final decision about whether to write a book.

Nevertheless, the Web site Galleycat reported a sighting last month of Mr. Rumsfeld visiting Penguin books, whose Sentinel imprint specializes in conservative subjects, and he is believed to have spoken with five or six other New York-based publishers to test the waters and learn more about the process. Mr. di Rita said it would be inaccurate to describe Mr. Rumsfeld as having a book proposal.

The publisher of Sentinel, Adrian Zackheim, declined to discuss Mr. Rumsfeld, but he said books by high-profile Cabinet officials "don't come up very often."

Asked if a book by Mr. Rumsfeld would draw large press attention, a long-time editor at Random House, Robert Loomis, said, "Yes, it will." Mr. Loomis said he heard that Robert Barnett of Williams & Connolly, who represents many similarly prominent figures, is involved in exploring the possibility of a Rumsfeld book.

Mr. Barnett declined to comment, citing client confidentiality.

Mr. Shirley — of Shirley & Banister — said press attention to Mr. Rumsfeld's book likely would exceed that of a recent book by a former director of central intelligence, George Tenet. (Nielsen BookScan reports the Mr. Tenet's book had sold 95,946 copies through last week, an estimated 70% of likely total sales.)

Mr. Shirley said all the Sunday morning news shows would "jump through hoops" to be the first to interview Mr. Rumsfeld, and he said one of the former defense secretary's goals would be to correct the factual record "so that he can sleep more gently."

Mr. Shirley said a first-run estimate could be at least 300,000 copies.

The founder of PublicAffairs books, Peter Osnos — who is publishing a biography of Mr. Rumsfeld and also published the bestselling mea culpa memoir by the Johnson administration defense secretary and Vietnam War architect Robert McNamara — said he doubted whether Mr. Rumsfeld was ready to be as blunt as Mr. McNamara had been. "People don't want to read a justification of the war all over again, but who knows?" Mr. Osnos said.

The publisher of Talkers Magazine, Michael Harrison, said Mr. Rumsfeld would be in great demand as an interview subject, but that he would more likely go on shows that have been supportive of him and the Iraq war. "He's more likely to go on Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity than on Lionel or Alan Colmes," he said.

Anthony Ziccardi, the vice president and deputy publisher of Threshold — a conservative imprint at Simon and Schuster — said Mr. Rumsfeld's book would be highly anticipated, and he estimated that it would have a six-figure print run.

"At the end of the day, it comes down to what he's going to say and how much of an insider's account it would be," said Mr. Ziccardi, who this fall will publish a book by a former American ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton. Mr. Ziccardi said he has not met with Mr. Rumsfeld about the memoir.

The editor in chief of conservative book club American Compass, Brad Miner, said Mr. Rumsfeld would have to express himself provocatively, giving opinions of those in the administration and military.

He said of all those except the president and the vice president, Mr. Rumsfeld is the Bush administration figure whose views people would be most interested in reading. Mr. Miner said the war has gone sour in the minds of so many, and nobody has forgotten Mr. Rumsfeld's early press conferences with his plainspoken manner and irascibility.

Mr. Miner estimated that a print run could be at 250,000 or more, but a gentler narrative would cut that initial print run in half.

The founder of Maximum Impact Public Relations, Max Pulsinelli, said a lot of Mr. Rumsfeld's job has been performed behind closed doors and that readers would be interested in understanding the inner workings of the Pentagon, especially while the nation is at war. Ms. Ross likewise said timing was a factor, cautioning that books that come out while an administration is still in office are often more circumspect about criticizing colleagues who are still in government.

Michael Link — the operations manager of a Washington, D.C., bookstore, Politics and Prose —said more people in the capital would line up to take Mr. Rumsfeld to task than to buy his book. Mr. Shirley said Mr. Rumsfeld "probably won't do any book signings at any mosques around the U.S."

The founder of Times Books, Thomas Lipscomb, who edited a book by President Nixon's chief of staff, H.R. Haldeman, said a problem with political books today is that few want a moderate, beautifully reasoned book. They want either "Ann Coulter in full cry or Barack Obama screaming for social justice," he said.