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The Case for McCain

Submitted by Eric Crampton, Jan 28, 2008 15:58

Ed,

You note that the polls show McCain as having a higher chance of winning the Presidency than either Giuliani or Romney. Let's go to the markets instead. InTrade currently runs book on who'll win the GOP and Democrat nominations, as well as on who will become the next President. With those numbers, we can back out the probability of winning the Presidency conditional on having won the nomination: it's just the price of the conditional market (Presidency) divided by the price of the condition (nomination). We then find the following:

Candidate P(Nom) P(Pres) P(Pres|Nom)
McCain 59% 24.5% 41.5%
Romney 30.5% 9.8% 32.1%
Giuliani 6.5% 4.1% 63%
Huckabee 3.1% 0.9% 29%
Paul 1.7% 1.3% 76.4%

On the Democrat side:

Candidate P(nom) P(Pres) P(Pres|Nom)
Clinton 61.3% 37.5% 61%
Obama 37% 22% 59%
Gore 1% 0.9% 90%
Edwards 0.65% 0.4% 62%

I don't trust the imputed odds for any candidate with a probability of nomination or of winning the Presidency of less than 2%. But the betting markets seem to be suggesting that Giuliani has a way better shot of beating the Democrats than anyone else, unless we believe the imputed numbers on Paul. These aren't thin markets: better than a hundred thousand real money contracts have traded on the Giuliani contract. Any Democrat candidate has better than even odds of winning the Presidency.

If you think that McCain would beat Clinton in the head to head race, you need to go over to InTrade and short Hillary's Presidential contract and go long on McCain's. You can hedge against either of them not winning the nomination by shorting the combo ticket that pays off if they're the candidate pair going into the election (currently at 38.5%). Or, short Giuliani or Romney in the Presidential market. Have fun!


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Other reader comments on this article

Comment By Date

John McCain appears to oppose a federal bailout for Florida homeowners who don't like paying high insurance premiums because they... [MORE]

jbb

Jan 29, 2008 14:36

John McCain is Bob Dole 2.0. The doctrine of primogenture is once again going to sink my party at the... [MORE]

Adirondack Al

Jan 29, 2008 04:37

He's distanced himself from Bush, and he is the only one that can grow the party and maintain the ol'... [MORE]

GOP Latina

Jan 29, 2008 01:15

"These three candidates all offer the American public the prospect of experience and ability, and they offer the prospect of... [MORE]

Handy

Jan 28, 2008 23:22

WOW!... Go Mitt! Poll Watch: Datamar Florida Poll, conducted Jan. 25th-27th, 2008. Mitt Romney: 35.6% John McCain: 23.2% Rudy Giuliani: 14.8% Mike... [MORE]

Newzaroo

Jan 28, 2008 21:20

Anyone who saw John McCain Meet the Press on 1/27 had to lose all respect for him. He makes Multiple... [MORE]

mnjam

Jan 28, 2008 20:12

I disagree with one of the key premises of this article; that in order to be a successful commander in... [MORE]

Hanya

Jan 28, 2008 19:52

Does it not bother ANYONE ELSE that McCain admitted that he doesn't know much about the economy!? Come on people?... [MORE]

Thooper

Jan 28, 2008 19:14

Professor Glaeser hints at - but perhaps stops short of completely saying - that the Grand Old Party has lost... [MORE]

Ramjet

Jan 28, 2008 18:44

Here is a link to an article that the neoconsevatives will find interesting since it comes from none other than... [MORE]

Todd

Jan 28, 2008 18:26

There are two things McCain is proud of - his family's tradition in the US Navy and his Republican heritage.... [MORE]

Rod

Jan 28, 2008 18:19

Smaller government? With more wars, his cuts in pork will still have higher government spending. And he'll balance the budget... [MORE]

pgl

Jan 28, 2008 17:24

I grew up a Republican working on dozens of campaigns from the time I was about 12. I watched thru... [MORE]

Ron Moore

Jan 28, 2008 17:04

Ed, You note that the polls show McCain as having a higher chance of winning the Presidency than either Giuliani or...

Eric Crampton

Jan 28, 2008 15:58

In this article, you did not emphasize the most important reason why John McCain should be elected President of the... [MORE]

Mr. W. Hodgkins

Jan 28, 2008 15:49

I have been closely watching the campaigns from the beginning. Although he is to be admired for his military service,... [MORE]

Ann Herget

Jan 28, 2008 15:37

McCain lacks economic expertise (by his own admission), Giuliani lacks pro-family values, and Romney excels in both these critical areas.... [MORE]

Eliot Brinton

Jan 28, 2008 15:30

I would have to disagree Mr. Gleaser. The potential President that has the most experience in Congress, and knows personally... [MORE]

Andre Jaumot

Jan 28, 2008 14:42

While I agree with Glaser that the GOP is broken and needs fixing, consider the following in determing whether McCain... [MORE]

Drew

Jan 28, 2008 14:25

Thanks for a terrific article. I am a McCain supporter because he is the best on the central issue of... [MORE]

Jim Adams

Jan 28, 2008 13:47

The author of "The Case for McCain" touted the three leading GOP contenders as including: McCain, Romney, and Guliani. The... [MORE]

Daniel

Jan 28, 2008 13:37

McCain will destroy the Republican party. Just say NO on McCain! [MORE]

John

Jan 28, 2008 13:31

The Republican Party is at a fork in the road with two distinct factions vying for control of its future: 1)... [MORE]

Dan R,

Jan 28, 2008 13:30

Are you kidding me? Backwards? What's wrong with backwards? The essence of conservatism is to conserve those values that made... [MORE]

Mike D'Virgilio

Jan 28, 2008 12:34

I am getting concerned over McCain's infatuation with war combined with his headstrong anger. SCARY! I keep hearing him repeat... [MORE]

Afisher

Jan 28, 2008 12:34

The three candidates seem to be uniquely representative of the party of Reagan. Although we can not construct a clone... [MORE]

Ralph Lawrence

Jan 28, 2008 12:17

No, McCain is not leading the Republican party off in the right direction. Through his liberal leadership in Congress (McCain/Feingold,... [MORE]

Paul in California

Jan 28, 2008 11:49

McCain is thewrong choice! McCain is too old, too angry, and too much a politican insider. The media has Not... [MORE]

Norma Parker

Jan 28, 2008 11:16

I am a lifelong conservative Republican. I will probably support Romney or Guiliani for the nomination. I, along with millions of... [MORE]

Calie Stephens

Jan 28, 2008 11:11

Incredible! McCain IS THE PAST! He's one of the reasons Washington is BROKEN! If you want change, vote Romney! [MORE]

Rockyspoon

Jan 28, 2008 11:02

Do you believe John McCain? Do you believe him when he says he didn't vote for Tax Cuts because there... [MORE]

Timothy L. Pennell

Jan 28, 2008 10:57

It's absurd how enthusiastically right wing pundits forgive and forget the mistakes and ideological deviations from Giuliani and Romney, but... [MORE]

Armando

Jan 28, 2008 10:24

I don't understand this. Romney changes position on one thing...abortion and it's called a flip-flop. He has been extremely open... [MORE]

Russ

Jan 28, 2008 10:00

I'd like to address McCain's global warming approach, and his chances against the Dems. McCains policy to restrict the economy... [MORE]

Ben Davis

Jan 28, 2008 09:32

You should pass this on to your parents and sister. It is the best summation of the importance of Republican... [MORE]

Heidi

Jan 28, 2008 09:21

There is no case for McCain. He was part of the Savings and Loan scandal of the 80's. He has... [MORE]

Randy

Jan 28, 2008 09:12

"Congress Shall Make On Law", the first five words of the first amendment. I do not understand how the Republican... [MORE]

Paul, Georgia

Jan 28, 2008 06:48

One only has to read Robert Coram's recent book American Patriot to get a picture of McCain and his motivations... [MORE]

Rogers Marshall

Jan 28, 2008 22:28

"Mr. McCain offers the most radical break with the recent Republican past," That's because he's all but a Democrat. [MORE]

Sav

Jan 28, 2008 05:52

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