Submitted by Joe Baaklini, Jan 7, 2008 10:11

I believe the end of the so-called Cedar Revolution is not the result of Arab League attempts to solve the Lebanese crisis. There are internal factors and external ones as well that would eventually lead to the disintegration of this movement.

The internal factors range from the shifting mass opinion and greater strength of the opposition forces. The majority of the Lebanese people are fed up with the status quo and see the "March 14th" movement as a group that had little in common other than greed for power and self preservation. The leaders of this movement are no different from the opposition, they seek and allow foreign powers to interfere and impose a will that suit them more than suit the Lebanese interests. One thing the opposition or the March 8th movement in addition to the Patriotic movement led by General Michel Aoun is that they have a written understanding on how to solve the Lebanese crisis and ultimately unite the entire country. The pro-Western government is led by individuals and groups that had a bad histroy during the Lebanese Civil War of 1975-1990.

Outside factors are the mess created by the United States after the second Iraq war of 2003. The Arab populace are suspect of any government supported or seems to benefit from the United States or the West. America made a blunder in Iraq, it is biased toward Israel in the Arab Israeli conflict, and president Bush is seen as less credible especially during his last year in office. The accusation against Iran of being sought to acquire and build a nuclear bombs now proven to be false and unsubstantiated. The credibilty of the US in the region is now more suspect. The Lebanese appreciate help from America, but this help must be sincere and unlike to blind support given to Israel to bomb and kill civilians in Lebanon during the Summer war of 2006 between Hizballah and Israel.

If the Lebanese to welcome and accept American assistance in solving their internal problems, I see no issue with the Arab countries to try and mediate between the Lebanese especially after the failed attempts by either France under President Sarkozi or America through David Welsh, the assistance for United States secretary of State. Of course Syria would prefer to see that Arab countries are mediating to solve the problems rather than American or Frech ones. However, I do not believe that Syria will gain too much by seeing its power chipped and shared by other regional power such as Saudi Arabia or Egypt.

Joe Baaklini

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