Submitted by John Marshall, Nov 14, 2007 09:56

The two hypotheses in this article are:

1. From Dear Ms. Rice: Violence has dropped in Iraq because the Iranians have chosen to restrain their terrorists in Iraq. Why believe this? Because officials in Iraq have said so.

2. From General Petraeus: Violence in Iraq has dropped because The Surge in Iraq has disrupted Iranian terrorist activites in Iraq. Why believe this? Well, just read the newspaper reports from September through now. The Surge has been succesful.

Given these hypotheses and the reasons for them, why would anyone consider hypothesis 1? The Iranians have always lied about their activities in Iran. Is there some evidence that they have stopped lying? None is reported in the article; that is, nothing aside from statements that could be just more lies.

So, the very discussion of hypothesis 1 is a non-starter. If Rice believes it, she really should be canned immediately.

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