Submitted by Cavalier829, Aug 30, 2007 15:28

I like Ryan Sager, however, I'd have to disagree with his analysis here. Much has been made of Florida because just recently both parties have threatened the state with depriving it of most or all of it's delegates as a consequence moving up it's primary date. So Sager is attempting to be contrarian in asserting that even without it's delegates Florida will be important to the Presidential contest next year.

I don't disagree that the Florida primary will be more important than those states remaining on Feb 5th of next year or afterward. I disagree that it will decide who the nominee is. I don't disagree with his facts, only his conclusion.

The way things seem set to go down on the Republican side I believe no nominee will be decided until April or even later. If Mr. Romney wins the Iowa Caucuses, as now seems likely, his New Hampshire neighbor status as a former Massachusetts Governor not to mention his current lead in the Granite State will give him the win there as well.

The thing is Mr. Romney has a key weakness in the South. Either because of his religion or his flip-flops on the issues, the folks down there have an aversion to him. South Carolina has received the same attention from the Romney campaign that Iowa and N.H. have and he remains no higher than 4th in that state. The assumption is always that, "what is past in prologue," and that wins in the first two contests will give the Governor a boost in the rest of the country, however in this case I believe we're going to see Mr. Romney pull no better than 2nd in S.C. to Mr. Giuliani. If that is the case, Florida won't decide anything, rather it will likely serve to accentuate Giuliani's status as Romney's chief opponent in the Feb. 5th contests. Even if Romney beats Giuliani there, Giuliani's attention to Florida on top of his S.C. win will earn him no less than 2nd and make him a major player when "Tsunami Tuesday," arrives.

So at a minimum, Feb. 5th will see the GOP contest open up into a real fight for two or three more months. And that doesn't even take into account the possibility that Mr. Thompson will be a factor in the race. If either Thompson or (less likely McCain) comes in the top two in S.C., Romney will be pushed into 3rd or worse there. Can he win in Florida or Texas or elsewhere in the South? Can a Republican disliked by the parties own southern base win the Republican nomination without these states? Can he win the Presidency? And what does his strength outside the South do to the length and status of the nomination contest?

But it won't be Florida that decides these questions.

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