Submitted by Kevin Bradshaw, Aug 12, 2007 17:42

First off, a down season- or even an extended period- of decline is not proof of the failure of the so-called Moneyball scheme. Is the decline of the St. Louis Cardinals proof that Jocketty's "traditional" approach is untenably flawed? Hardly.

But OBP and such is based on objective fact and was destined to change the market, whether Beane beat them to it or not.

I think the biggest problem is that no matter how good your basis, player performance is still pretty unpredictable. Chavez had a great '04 and looked set to have an amazing peak. Drew 99 walks, slugged .500, and was a one of the best third sackers in baseball. Who knew '05 and '06 would be so much worse? As for Crosby, well he's been no small disaster. As for Piazza, there was no reason to think he'd do anything like Thomas, but why not try it?Significant injuries to Zito, Mulder, and Hudson and Moneyball might never have been written.

I think you can blame Beane for: Kotsay I don't get, never did. Shannon Stewart's powerless offense can be a stop gap, at best. Significant money was wasted on the decline version of Jason Kendall. Injuries everywhere this year.

The analogy in Baseball Propsectus '07 was dead on, comparing Beane to a little boy plugging the holes in the dike w/ his fingers and, perhaps, running out of fingers. He hasn't lost his fastball. He's neither perfect nor clairvoyant.

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