Submitted by casual fan, Apr 25, 2007 05:57

Have to say my initial reaction is to disagree - somewhat with your assumptions, since I'd peg a healthy Moose - and especially a healthy Wang - to do significantly better.

But even granting your assumptions, it's probably not as simple as deducting five or six wins. If you played out hundreds of seasons for the two possible rosters (as I think some stat company does), an *average* difference of five or six wins - seemingly not all that much if you start with 97 - might in practice mean huge differences in the liklelihood of extremes - i.e., chances for super seasons or simply tanking well out of contention. So a team with the original healthy starting rotation might have a 5% chance of winning 85 or fewer games and the one staffed with rookies a 40% chance.

It'd be interesting to hear from a statistically minded fan.

BTW, Boston has resources nearly equal to the Yankees, and it's not hard to imagine how the Sox could sell the Rocket on a return to Fenway.

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