For, Against Uncle Sam's Bailout

The exact details have yet to be spelled out, but an internationally known global money manager, Jim Rogers, a transplanted New Yorker now residing in Singapore, is denouncing Uncle Sam's estimated $700 billion rescue package, saying he's convinced the fallout from the bailout would be disastrous.

"It's astonishing, devastating, and very harmful for America and American citizens," he tells me. "It means we're in for the worst recession since World War II, as well as higher long-term interest rates, higher inflation, higher taxes, a weaker dollar and substantially lower stock prices."

That's his reaction to the government's efforts to relieve the banks of hundreds of billions of dollars of bad debts and revitalize the floundering credit markets by injecting a heavy dose of fresh new liquidity into the financial system.

Addressing the explosive two-day Dow Jones Industrial Average rally of nearly 779 points, Mr. Rogers ridicules the buying binge, insisting that investors "were foolishly sucked in by hysteria and a buying panic. I wouldn't buy now because it's insane." Describing the rise as artificial and unsustainable, he contends "it's only a matter of time before reality sets in and the market heads down again." Making matters worse, he says, it's "embarrassing to see how little the presidential candidates know or grasp what's going on, just like the current administration."

Mr. Rogers, one of Wall Street's great success stories — he made millions working with George Soros in the 1960s and 1970s — evokes the 1970s, when a Federal Reserve chairman, Arthur Burns, wouldn't let anyone fail, and insists we're making the same mistake again.

The 65-year-old manager presently owns some dollars and says he thought the recent greenback rally would continue. "Now I'm not so sure, that rally may be over," he says. Mr. Rogers has covered his short sales — a bet stock prices will fall — on Fannie Mae, Citigroup, and some companies in the homebuilder sector. On the buy side, he recently began to acquire stocks in China and Taiwan.

A professor of economics at the University of Maryland, Peter Morici, also says he is skeptical about the rescue package. "Wall Street has once again acted irrationally," he says. Why so? Because he views the government's action as only "half a loaf," one that will give the economy a temporary lift and stave off a recession. It doesn't address the bigger problems, he says, notably bank management incompetence and the necessity of major bank reforms. Without such changes, he contends, banks will begin to fail again a year or two down the pike, restricting what the government will be able to achieve in Social Security and health care reform.

In contrast, a leading technical analyst, Mark Leibovit, takes a more positive approach. "The game on Wall Street has now changed; you don't fight city hall, or in this case Uncle Sam." The crack technician has done a complete about-face on his outlook for the stock market. A few weeks ago, his roughly 20 market indicators, bearish as could be, suggested the Dow would break below 10,000. Now, he says, they're firing off a strong buy signal, indicating to him a Dow flight to 13,000 before year-end.

A former Merrill Lynch strategist, Bill Rhodes, also offers a sunny view. "If the banks start lending to each other again — which I think they will — the credit crisis will resolve itself and we'll have seen a market bottom," he says.

In a move to stop the carnage on Wall Street and shore up investor confidence, the Securities and Exchange Commission has also gotten into the act, banning short sales on nearly 800 financial companies. Although temporary, this action has come in for heavy Street criticism. One critic, the portfolio manager of the Graham & Dodd Fund PLC, David Rosen, calls it "an anti-capitalist move, very suspect." It means that if the market drops, there's no hedging mechanism for slowing a decline and it makes for a much more volatile environment, he says.

A stockbroker at Kern, Suslow Securities, Malcolm Lowenthal, describes the government's intervention in the financial crisis as an absolute necessity. "Before it, you had stark financial terror. Without it, you would have had a slaughter on Wall Street." He notes that prior to the two-day rally, some friends had sold out of every stock they owned.

Meanwhile, in case you're wondering who's next on the bailout parade, some Wall Street pros figure Detroit's Big 3 may soon join the list. A manager at one of my local sushi restaurants also expressed interest. "We're not doing too good," he says. "The people here want to know where do we go for our bailout."

dandordan@aol.com