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Recent Editorials |
Entries in category GOP PrimaryAmid Gaza Crisis, McCain Urges Cease-fire, Negotiations By Josh Gerstein | Mon, 3 Mar 2008 at 1:54 PM Excerpt: The all-but-certain Republican nominee for president, Senator McCain of Arizona, seemed to call this morning for negotiations to end the crisis caused by repeated missile attacks on Israel from Gaza and by retaliatory military strikes Israel has carried... [continue] By Josh Gerstein | Thu, 7 Feb 2008 at 12:58 PM Excerpt: Mitt Romney announced today that he is dropping out of the presidential race, clearing the way for Senator McCain to advance towards the Republican nomination. "If I fight on in my campaign all the way to the convention--I want you to know I've given... [continue] Limbaugh Defends Clinton and Obama on Iraq By Josh Gerstein | Mon, 4 Feb 2008 at 5:27 PM Excerpt: Talk show host Rush Limbaugh is so exasperated about Senator McCain's surge in the Republican presidential contest that he is coming to the defense of Senators Clinton and Obama. On Mr. Limbaugh's program today, he said people should not be rushing to... [continue] Lieberman: McCain Could Keep Bloomberg Out of Race By Russell Berman | Thu, 31 Jan 2008 at 3:21 PM Excerpt: Senator Lieberman says the increasing likelihood that Senator McCain will win the Republican nomination could keep Mayor Bloomberg on the sidelines of the presidential race this fall. "My feeling all along has been that if he ran, it would be because... [continue] Limbaugh: "The Base Has Fractured" By Josh Gerstein | Wed, 30 Jan 2008 at 12:53 PM Excerpt: A defensive Rush Limbaugh, one of Senator McCain's biggest detractors, just delivered what he called a "non-concession speech" in response to Mr. McCain's win in Florida Tuesday. "Yeah, it looks like McCain's pretty far down the line now to having... [continue] Bloomberg on Polling Effort: 'I'm Not a Candidate' By Grace Rauh | Mon, 14 Jan 2008 at 2:14 PM Excerpt: Mayor Bloomberg, facing reporters for the first time since the Associated Press reported on Wednesday that he is conducting extensive polling and voter analysis in all 50 states, denied yet again that he is a candidate for president and ducked three... [continue] "Driving Mrs. Hevesi" Makes It to N.H. By Russell Berman | Tue, 8 Jan 2008 at 10:17 AM Excerpt: The "Driving Mrs. Hevesi" scandal has made it to New Hampshire, and it is being used to target Mayor Giuliani. A stack of anti-Giuliani flyers were found laying on a camera riser at a rally for Senator McCain in Concord, N.H., yesterday afternoon. The... [continue] Romney Concedes Massachusetts to Clinton By Josh Gerstein | Thu, 3 Jan 2008 at 5:04 PM Excerpt: Mitt Romney says he won't win his home state in November if he is the Republican nominee for president. Asked Thursday in a radio interview if he would prevail in Massachusetts in a match-up with Senator Clinton, Mr. Romney replied, "Oh, I can't imagine... [continue] Romney Camp Chafes at Huckabee Shtick By Josh Gerstein | Thu, 3 Jan 2008 at 3:54 PM Excerpt: Mike Huckabee's comic, aw-shucks shtick seems to be wearing on Mitt Romney's campaign. A spokesman for Mr. Romney, Erich Fehrnstrom, sounded less than impressed with Mr. Huckabee's humor and guitar-playing on NBC's "Tonight Show" Wednesday. "It was hard... [continue] President Clinton Predicts Huckabee Win in Iowa By Josh Gerstein | Wed, 2 Jan 2008 at 7:14 PM Excerpt: One of the nation's top political handicappers, President Clinton, is predicting that Mike Huckabee will win the Republican presidential caucuses in Iowa Thursday. "Governor Huckabee has got a little hometown pride going because it looks like the Iowa... [continue] Stephens, Childs Fund Club's Slam of Huckabee By Josh Gerstein | Wed, 12 Dec 2007 at 3:06 PM Excerpt: A television ad criticizing Republican presidential candidate Michael Huckabee's willingness to raise taxes as governor of Arkansas is being funded largely by an Arkansas banker, Jackson Stephens Jr., and a Massachusetts financier, John Childs. ... [continue] "Huckaboom" Coaxes No Regret From Brownback By Russell Berman | Thu, 6 Dec 2007 at 5:31 PM Excerpt: When Senator Brownback of Kansas endorsed Senator McCain exactly a month ago, he passed over his ideological soul mate, Michael Huckabee. In the weeks since, Mr. Huckabee has surged in the polls and into a virtual tie for the lead in Iowa, where Mr.... [continue] Rudy Balks, Then Offers to Mediate Writers' Strike By Josh Gerstein | Tue, 13 Nov 2007 at 6:58 PM Excerpt: Mayor Giuliani, who's on a campaign swing through Southern California today, initially had nothing at all to say about the writers' strike that has put thousands of people out of work in the Los Angeles area, threatens the employment of thousands more,... [continue] Bloggers' Notebook: Potential First Spouses By Josh Gerstein | Tue, 23 Oct 2007 at 11:51 PM Excerpt: Five of the potential first spouses who could occupy the White House in 2009 were publicly auditioned Tuesday by California's first lady, Maria Shriver, at an annual conference she holds to discuss women's issues. Ms. Shriver, a former NBC broadcaster,... [continue] George Allen Supports Fred Thompson By Ryan Sager | Mon, 8 Oct 2007 at 3:15 PM Excerpt: With or without an endorsement, the person Fred Thompson owes the most to this election season is former Virginia senator George "Macaca" Allen. If not for Mr. Allen's implosion in 2006, he would have been reelected to the Senate and crowned the... [continue] Political Video of the Weekend: Fred Thompson on SNL By Ryan Sager | Mon, 8 Oct 2007 at 9:45 AM Excerpt: Fred Thompson makes his first appearance (as a Darrell Hammond impression) on Saturday Night Live. The joke? Fred Thompson is lazy: "How badly do I want to be your president? On a scale of 1 to 10, about a 6."... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 5 Oct 2007 at 5:56 PM Excerpt: Last month, the Insider Advantage poll had Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani tied in Florida. Now, Mr. Giuliani's pulled ahead decisively: Giuliani: 29% Thompson: 19% Romney: 16% McCain: 10% My sense is that despite a decent showing in the polls, the... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Log Cabin Republicans for Romney (Not Really) By Ryan Sager | Thu, 4 Oct 2007 at 2:28 PM Excerpt: The Log Cabin Republicans have launched an ingenious ad, which will be running on Fox News nationally and in Iowa: Note what the ad doesn't touch: gay issues. It sarcastically endorses his once-upon-a-time support for abortion rights, opposition to... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 4 Oct 2007 at 1:46 PM Excerpt: GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani once again* is the frontrunner in the cash chase: Giuliani: $10.5 million ($16 million cash on hand) Romney: $10 million raised, plus $8.5 million of his own money ($9 million cash on hand) Thompson: $9.3 million ($7... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 4 Oct 2007 at 10:14 AM Excerpt: James Dobson, head of the tax-exempt Focus on the Family, issues a rather explicit political threat to Rudy Giuliani today in the New York Times: "If the major political parties decide to abandon conservative principles, the cohesion of pro-family... [continue] 'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch: Bloomberg Edition By Ryan Sager | Thu, 4 Oct 2007 at 10:02 AM Excerpt: Another McCain comeback story, this time from Bloomberg News. Yet, the basic dynamic of this race remains the same, as does the fact that Mr. McCain won't win. Mr. McCain has jumped in some polls, especially as compared to July. But this just puts him... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 3 Oct 2007 at 5:21 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson's record is exceedingly thin... but at least he doesn't remember it!... [continue] Ron Paul Tops $5 Million for the Quarter By Ryan Sager | Wed, 3 Oct 2007 at 5:12 PM Excerpt: Ron Paul has topped $5 million for the third quarter. That means he's outraised Mike Huckabee by about $4 million. He's also competitive with John McCain (and, really, doing better than McCain financially when debt is taken into account) and Bill... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 3 Oct 2007 at 10:22 AM Excerpt: You may have seen that ridiculous Giuliani campaign map yesterday that attempted to show how a Giuliani-Clinton race would put the former mayor in the catbird seat that is, counting only Vermont and Massachusetts as definite Clinton wins, while... [continue] Romney Rebukes Hillary Over Iran Stance By Josh Gerstein | Tue, 2 Oct 2007 at 1:57 PM Excerpt: Senator Clinton's announcement yesterday that she plans to support legislation to block President Bush from taking military action against Iran without prior approval from Congress did not sit well with Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 2 Oct 2007 at 1:10 PM Excerpt: We've already seen the Republican Party lose its identity as the party of fiscal conservatism. Now, the Wall Street Journal is arguing it's lost its identity as the party of business. What's left?... [continue] National Journal on the Interior West (and Virginia) By Ryan Sager | Tue, 2 Oct 2007 at 12:47 PM Excerpt: National Journal takes a look at the interior West (a topic near and dear to my heart) and Virginia and how they'll play in the 2008 election. Long story short, Independents and Goldwater Republicans have become disaffected by today's GOP out West.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 2 Oct 2007 at 11:06 AM Excerpt: Remember the ARG poll that showed a ridiculously high number for Mitt Romney? Well, Rasmussen has some quite different numbers, probably more in line with reality. Meanwhile, ARG head Dick Bennett defends his poll, insisting that Mr. Romney's TV... [continue] Minnesota: Giuliani Leads, McCain Strong By Ryan Sager | Tue, 2 Oct 2007 at 10:41 AM Excerpt: In the first presidential primary poll out of Minnesota (a Super Duper Tuesday state), Rudy Giuliani leads with John McCain in second place: Giuliani: 27% McCain: 22% Thompson: 16% Romney: 5% One caveat (an important one): The margin of error here is... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Nativist Endorses Rudy Giuliani By Ryan Sager | Tue, 2 Oct 2007 at 10:35 AM Excerpt: The Giuliani campaign is going all out to promote this video of an endorsement by Joey Vento, the Philadelphia cheesesteak guy famous for hanging a sign in his shop declaring: "This is America: when ordering 'speak English'": It's really a shame... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 2 Oct 2007 at 9:39 AM Excerpt: Congressman Pete Sessions, a staunch pro-life Republican from Texas and a Rudy Giuliani supporter, tells The Brody File that if Giuliani were a member of Congress today, he'd be considered pro-life. Get you jaw off the floor. Here's the money quote:... [continue] By Seth Gitell | Mon, 1 Oct 2007 at 4:58 PM Excerpt: Mitt Romney commenced his run for president at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. Mr. Romney emerged as a point man critical of the Democratic proceedings in Boston and John Kerry. Today, in a major speech on his plans for America's... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 1 Oct 2007 at 4:49 PM Excerpt: John Fund gives a rundown of just how hollow is the threat of social conservatives running a third-party candidacy against a Rudy Giuliani topped GOP ticket: Threatening a third-party campaign is easier said than done. The task of securing a place on... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 1 Oct 2007 at 3:01 PM Excerpt: ...sure like Sean Hannity.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 1 Oct 2007 at 12:59 PM Excerpt: The latest ARG GOP primary poll in South Carolina is extremely odd probably crossing over into implausible: Romney: 26% Giuliani: 23% McCain: 15% Thompson: 10% This would mean Mr. Romney has jumped almost three-fold in the poll since August. Mr.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 1 Oct 2007 at 11:58 AM Excerpt: The Thompson campaign is saying this morning that it has raised more than $8 million in the 3rd quarter (its first) that is, for July, August, and September. By way of comparison, the 1st quarter numbers of his three main rivals were: Mitt Romney, $21... [continue] Giuliani Catches Romney in Granite State By Ryan Sager | Thu, 27 Sep 2007 at 1:04 AM Excerpt: Mitt Romney's lead in New Hampshire is history. According to the latest CNN poll of the Granite State, Rudy Giuliani has pulled even with the former Massachusetts governor, with 24% of the New Hampshire Republican vote one point shy of Mr. Romney's 25%... [continue] Q-Poll: Giuliani v. Clinton a Dead Heat in Garden State By Ryan Sager | Wed, 26 Sep 2007 at 10:34 AM Excerpt: Often, people question whether Rudy Giuliani would really put New Jersey in play as the GOP nominee. While I think it's clear he wouldn't put New York into play in any serious way (that's going to Hillary Clinton), polls out of the Garden State have... [continue] Does Gingrich Consider the Fred Thompson Run a Flop? By Ryan Sager | Mon, 24 Sep 2007 at 12:55 PM Excerpt: Newt Gingrich had previously said he wouldn't get in the race if Fred Thompson did and made a good showing. I'd call achieving second place (or perhaps even co-frontrunner) status immediately a pretty good showing. But, apparently, Newt Gingrich still... [continue] Giuliani Versus the First Amendment? By Ryan Sager | Fri, 21 Sep 2007 at 12:31 PM Excerpt: What on earth does this mean?: "[MoveOn.org] passed a line that we should not allow an American political organizations to pass," he said. "We are at war right now, whether some people want to recognize it or not." Is he saying a political group should... [continue] Thompson for Men, Giuliani for Women By Ryan Sager | Fri, 21 Sep 2007 at 12:26 PM Excerpt: The Buzz notes something I've been seeing in the data on Fred Thompson: He has a gender gap with women. In the latest Insider Advantage poll in Florida: "Republican men back Thompson over Giuliani 31% to 23%, while Republican women back Giuliani over... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 21 Sep 2007 at 12:19 PM Excerpt: RCP makes the case that Mitt Romney's early state leads (in IA and NH) are less than stable. If true, that's some bad news for Mr. Romney, as the early states are the only place he's gained any traction at all.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 20 Sep 2007 at 1:56 PM Excerpt: Evangelical leader James Dobson seems not to be terribly enthused about the Fred Thompson for president campaign: "Isn't Thompson the candidate who is opposed to a Constitutional amendment to protect marriage, believes there should be 50 different... [continue] McCain Death Watch: 'He's done for' Edition By Ryan Sager | Thu, 20 Sep 2007 at 1:29 PM Excerpt: The Washington Times reports: "The campaign has raised only $3.7 million to date for the quarter," a longtime, influential friend of the Arizona Republican told The Washington Times. "The hope was to reach $4.5 million, about a third of what was raised... [continue] New Reuters/Zogby Poll: Giuliani and McCain Up; Romney Down By Ryan Sager | Wed, 19 Sep 2007 at 12:38 PM Excerpt: Here's the latest Zogby poll (change since last poll in July in parentheses): Giuliani: 26% (+5 ) Thompson: 24% (+2) McCain: 13% (+4) Romney: 7% (-4) That Romney Iowa bounce sure was short-lived. And, again, a poll finds Messrs. Giuliani and Thompson... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Thompson on Health Care, From the Campaign Bus By Ryan Sager | Wed, 19 Sep 2007 at 12:28 PM Excerpt: Choice to Democrats is like a cross to vampires. So says Fred Thompson in this Web video responding to HillaryCare: Note all the ear tugging and chin scratching a bit odd. Also, Mr. Thompson talks about expanding "choice" as the solution to our... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 19 Sep 2007 at 12:25 PM Excerpt: Former Thatcher advisors and a senior editor of National Review join Team Rudy.... [continue] Huckabee Wins Values Voter Straw Poll By Ryan Sager | Tue, 18 Sep 2007 at 3:02 PM Excerpt: The Big Four GOP candidates skipped the Values Voter debate last night, leaving Mike Huckabee to clean up, according to a release from the organization today: "While many very good candidates attended the event, Governor Mike Huckabee was the clear... [continue] Thompson Committed to Debate That's Not Happening By Ryan Sager | Tue, 18 Sep 2007 at 2:56 PM Excerpt: Jonathan Martin notes via an alert reader that the slate of debates Fred Thompson's campaign committed to recently included one debate that was canceled a while ago. There will be no October 14 debate hosted by ABC in New Hampshire. That leaves the... [continue] Giuliani on the Radio: 'Nightmare' By Ryan Sager | Tue, 18 Sep 2007 at 12:09 PM Excerpt: The Giuliani campaign takes another step forward in its strategy of running against Hillary Clinton and the left, as opposed to running against the people he's currently supposed to be running against in the GOP primary: The ad, titled "Nightmare,"... [continue] Gallup: McCain Recovers; Romney Fades By Ryan Sager | Tue, 18 Sep 2007 at 11:05 AM Excerpt: Here's the latest from Gallup: Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to lead the national race for the Republican presidential nomination, although his support has faded to one of its lowest readings of the year. Former Tennessee senator... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 18 Sep 2007 at 1:17 AM Excerpt: The Big Four GOP candidates skipped the Values Voter debate tonight in Florida. The St. Petersburg Times Buzz blog has a roundup of the ribbing taken by Messrs. Giuliani, Romney, McCain, and Thompson. Mitt Romney seems to have taken it on the chin the... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Romney on HillaryCare By Ryan Sager | Mon, 17 Sep 2007 at 4:45 PM Excerpt: Mitt Romney responds to Hillary Clinton's health-care proposal: One might notice the ironic location of Mr. Romney's talk: in front of the Rudolph W. Giuliani Trauma Center at St. Vincent's Hospital in Manhattan, still under construction. One might... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 17 Sep 2007 at 4:28 PM Excerpt: The Thompson campaign announces a debate schedule for October: TO: Interested Parties FROM: Bill Lacy, Campaign Manager DATE: September 17, 2007 RE: Thompson Campaign October Debate Schedule The Thompson for President campaign plans to attend the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 17 Sep 2007 at 1:28 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani will address an NRA crowd down in D.C. Friday. Also attending on the Republican side: Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Mike Huckabee. Mitt Romney and Duncan Hunter will appear via videotape. On the Democratic side, just one appearance, via... [continue] More Conservative Pundit Hostility for Fred Thompson By Ryan Sager | Mon, 17 Sep 2007 at 11:56 AM Excerpt: This time from Dick Morris: Now that Thompson has finally declared his candidacy, albeit on the Jay Leno show, many are pinning their hopes on him as a later-day Ronald Reagan. But he's no Ronald Reagan and he's never going to be viable. Here's why:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 16 Sep 2007 at 5:53 PM Excerpt: A few minutes ago, Fred Thompson's campaign released a schedule for the next week: Monday - Fundraising in Knoxville, Tennessee Tuesday - Fundraising and Local Media in Florida, Press Avail with Florida Governor Charlie Crist Wednesday & Thursday -... [continue] ARG: Giuliani and Thompson Tied By Ryan Sager | Fri, 14 Sep 2007 at 11:44 PM Excerpt: The latest ARG poll has Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson tied nationally (change since August in parentheses): Giuliani: 24% (-3) Thompson: 23% (+7) McCain: 14% (+1) Romney: 9% (-7) While Fred Thompson cuts into Rudy Giuliani (and reduces him to... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 14 Sep 2007 at 4:50 PM Excerpt: Republican candidates turn down PBS debate at historically black college.... [continue] Political Video of the Day II: Giuliani vs. Clinton By Ryan Sager | Fri, 14 Sep 2007 at 4:44 PM Excerpt: The Giuliani campaign keeps up its strategy of running against Hillary Clinton as opposed to, say, his opponents in the GOP primary:... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Thompson Kicks Off in Jacksonville By Ryan Sager | Fri, 14 Sep 2007 at 4:38 PM Excerpt: From yesterday's swing through Florida, Fred Thompson makes his first Sunshine State stump speech in Jacksonville:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 13 Sep 2007 at 9:18 PM Excerpt: Here's the president's speech on Iraq. Mitt Romney responded before the speech was over: "President Bush understands that our most crucial objective in Iraq is to make sure it does not become a safe haven for al-Qaeda and Jihadist terrorists. But that's... [continue] Fred Thompson Camp on Schiavo: 'no role for the federal government to play' By Ryan Sager | Thu, 13 Sep 2007 at 5:41 PM Excerpt: I asked for the Thompson campaign to clarify the former senator's comments earlier on the Terri Schiavo case: Thompson spokesman Jeff Sadosky offered this: "While he believes in the sanctity of life, he also believes that it was a decision for the... [continue] Fred Thompson on Schiavo: 'I don't remember the details of it' By Ryan Sager | Thu, 13 Sep 2007 at 4:17 PM Excerpt: The St. Petersburg Times gets this out of Fred Thompson on the Terri Schiavo case: Did he support intervention in the Schiavo case? "Local matters generally speaking should be left to the locals. I think Congress has got an awful lot to keep up with...... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 13 Sep 2007 at 4:00 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani asks the New York Times for the Betray-Us rate to take out an ad attacking Hillary Clinton. A little silly, but good politics. A Drudge headline. A lot of conservative blog pick up. Continues with the theme that he's the one to take on... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 13 Sep 2007 at 1:01 PM Excerpt: This morning, as at many events, Fred Thompson was asked about education. And, as before, Mr. Thompson attacked No Child Left Behind: "We've been spending increasing amounts of federal money for decades, with increasing rules, increasing mandates,... [continue] Fred Thompson: Mr. Sunshine State By Ryan Sager | Thu, 13 Sep 2007 at 11:15 AM Excerpt: Fred Thompson just had his Sunshine State debut in downtown Jacksonville, Florida. Despite the broader organizational problems I mentioned in my column this morning, the crowd turnout was good (150-200) and enthusiastic. It was also hot as hell (in this... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 13 Sep 2007 at 12:44 AM Excerpt: While we're on the subject of Fred Thompson (OK, we have been for two weeks, but a new candidate is news), here are a few more items: * On the eve of Mr. Thompson's Sunshine State debut in Jacksonville, I take a look at why a couple of big players just... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 13 Sep 2007 at 12:37 AM Excerpt: George Will is good at the takedown. Many of you might remember when Mr. Will single-handedly prevented Harriet Miers from being confirmed to the Supreme Court (I exaggerate only a little). Now Mr. Will is asking: "Is a Fred Thompson Campaign Necessary?"... [continue] Q-Poll: No Thompson Bounce in Florida By Ryan Sager | Wed, 12 Sep 2007 at 8:28 PM Excerpt: I've mentioned before the importance of Florida to the GOP primary season... Well, the latest Q-Poll tells us that Fred Thompson's announcement caused no bounce in the state. In fact, quite the opposite (change from August listed in parentheses):... [continue] WaPo: 'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch By Ryan Sager | Tue, 11 Sep 2007 at 10:53 PM Excerpt: Here's the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll (change since July in parentheses): Giuliani: 26% (-8) Thompson: 18% (+4) McCain: 18% (+2) Romney: 9%(+1) Nice boost for Fred Thompson. Big slip for Rudy Giuliani (though, in line with where he's been in... [continue] Thompson Doesn't Heart Huckabee By Ryan Sager | Tue, 11 Sep 2007 at 11:23 AM Excerpt: The Fred Thompson campaign turns down Mike Huckabee's offer of a Lincoln-Douglas style debate.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 11 Sep 2007 at 10:19 AM Excerpt: Today, all the presidential candidates face the delicate task of commemorating 9/11 without appearing to try to exploit it. Below the fold is a roundup of their official statements... McLean, VA-Fred Thompson issued the following statement to commemorate... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 10 Sep 2007 at 11:55 PM Excerpt: It turns out snubbing New Hampshire to go on TV from Los Angeles works really well ... in California. Fred Thompson sees a big jump in the Golden State, according to Survey USA: Giuliani: 28% Thompson: 26% McCain: 18% Romney: 14% Survey USA, however,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 10 Sep 2007 at 5:53 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson sets dates and places for his Florida tour (my thoughts on Florida as the likely decider of the GOP primary are here): Thursday, September 13: Jacksonville Friday, September 14: Miami and Cape Coral Saturday, September 15: Lakeland and... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 10 Sep 2007 at 4:56 PM Excerpt: I link to this site not to endorse it, but merely to point out its existence: PhoneyFred.org. It is (obviously) an anti-Fred Thompson site, and it looks professionally done, pointing to one of Mr. Thompson's GOP rivals or even the DNC. Here is the Whois... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 10 Sep 2007 at 4:25 PM Excerpt: Maybe Rudy Giuliani should go after Mitt Romney for Boston's crime problem.... [continue] Gallup: McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson Up; Romney Down By Ryan Sager | Mon, 10 Sep 2007 at 12:59 PM Excerpt: A Gallup poll taken Friday and Saturday, after Fred Thompson's announcement, shows a very modest bump for the former Tennessee senator. Meanwhile, John McCain shows the biggest improvement, and Mitt Romney shows the biggest dip (change from August 13-16... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Fred Thompson in Council Bluffs, Iowa By Ryan Sager | Mon, 10 Sep 2007 at 9:42 AM Excerpt: For your enjoyment, I've got one full Fred Thompson stump speech. After a rough morning campaign kickoff in Des Moines, Mr. Thompson had a better evening at Council Bluffs. This video is the full stump speech plus a Q&A session:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 9 Sep 2007 at 2:32 PM Excerpt: From my latest column, on the second day of the Fred Thompson announcement tour, on the new constitutional amendment he has proposed regarding gay marriage: One of the most striking aspects of Fred Thompson's message in the run-up to his official... [continue] 'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch: McCain Memo Edition By Ryan Sager | Sun, 9 Sep 2007 at 2:27 PM Excerpt: Marc Ambinder looks at an internal John McCain memo outlining a "comeback" strategy for this fall. The highlights include a 'No Surrender" tour, based on "owning" the surge, some policy pronouncements, and some talk about faith. It also includes this... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 9 Sep 2007 at 2:22 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson's work for the Libyans may make it tougher for him to criticize Rudy Giuliani's work for Venezuela. Still, the other candidates (and the Democrats) can take shots at both of them for their many private clients.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 9 Sep 2007 at 1:46 PM Excerpt: The St. Petersburg Times's "Buzz" blog notes RNC chairman Mel Martinez's tough sell: From the Washington Post today: "I was hoping that there would be good participation in the Univision forum," Martinez said. "It's a very busy primary calendar, and... [continue] Thoughts on Fred Thompson, After Two Days on the Bus By Ryan Sager | Fri, 7 Sep 2007 at 9:38 PM Excerpt: Having spent a bit of time on Fred Thompson's rocky first day on the campaign trail here, and having criticized his evolving stance on gay marriage here, I wanted to offer a few broader, less focused (I mean that in a good way) thoughts after two days on... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Fred Thompson's New Gay Marriage Amendment By Ryan Sager | Fri, 7 Sep 2007 at 2:52 PM Excerpt: Here's the video of Fred Thompson proposing an amendment to the Constitution prohibiting state judges from requiring their states to recognize gay marriages: An account of his remarks on the issue is printed below the fold... Mr. Thompson took on... [continue] Fred Thompson Proposes Marriage Amendment to Restrain Judges By Ryan Sager | Fri, 7 Sep 2007 at 11:49 AM Excerpt: Speaking in Sioux City, Iowa, moments ago, Fred Thompson endorsed an amendment to the Constitution that would prevent state judges from altering the definition of marriage without the direction of their states' legislatures. Mr. Thompson has been under... [continue] Thompson's First Campaign Event: Unimpressive By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 4:11 PM Excerpt: I just attended Fred Thompson's first campaign event in Des Moines, Iowa. The quick take: This is a whimper of a start. I'm writing from the filing center that the Thompson campaign has set up in the Polk County Convention Complex, and the verdict from... [continue] Club for Growth: Quite Positive on Fred Thompson By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 12:33 PM Excerpt: The Club for Growth, which previously had given Rudy Giuliani its highest praise in a series of white papers on the GOP presidential candidates, seems to have taken a shine to Fred Thompson in its latest effort: "Fred Thompson's eight-year record is... [continue] For All You Goldwater Fans Out There By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 12:19 PM Excerpt: Just a quick note to all you Barry Goldwater fans out there: HBO's excellent documentary, "Mr. Conservative," put together by Barry's granddaughter, CC Goldwater, is out on DVD. It's a great film, and maybe it puts the current crop of Republican... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 12:14 PM Excerpt: Colorado is moving its caucus date to Super Duper Tuesday, February 5. That's possibly more good news for Rudy Giuliani, who was leading by 15 points (35%-20%) over Fred Thompson in the latest ARG poll in that state. The poll, though, was taken in July.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 12:09 PM Excerpt: Man, the LA Times has drawn blood. Will Thompson's opponents start calling him "Freddie"? (via TGPW)... [continue] S.C. Poll: Thompson-Giuliani Dead Heat By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 11:56 AM Excerpt: The Clemson University Palmetto Poll finds Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani in a dead heat: Thompson: 19% Giuliani: 18% McCain: 15% Romney: 11% On name ID, it's Giuliani (99%), McCain (97%), Romney (87%), Thompson (83%). The preference number is pretty... [continue] Political Video of 11:30 p.m. Last Night: Highlights From Thompson on Leno By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 11:41 AM Excerpt: OK, last video for at least a little while. Fred Thompson on Leno:... [continue] Political Video of 12:01 a.m. Today: Fred Thompson's Announcement By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 11:07 AM Excerpt: The official one from Fred08.com, not the Leno one (below the fold is the full transcript of the webcast, as provided by the Thompson campaign): Transcript: "My friends, I come to you today to tell you that I intend to run for President. I feel... [continue] Political Video of Last Night: Giuliani Plays for the McCain Endorsement By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 10:58 AM Excerpt: If John McCain drops out early in the GOP primary either before Iowa or after a loss in New Hampshire Rudy Giuliani definitely wants to be the one to pick up the endorsement. This has to be the 89th time we've heard him say this:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 6 Sep 2007 at 12:25 AM Excerpt: Fred08.com is up. I'll count it as a good sign for Fred Thompson that I can't seem to get on it presumably some serious traffic from Leno and the Fox News ad. The Sun's Russell Berman has the story on the debate here. I missed the debate tonight, on... [continue] Corleone Consigliere Endorses Giuliani By Ryan Sager | Wed, 5 Sep 2007 at 5:52 PM Excerpt: This just in from the Giuliani campaign: Academy Award-Winning Actor Robert Duvall Supports Rudy Giuliani New York City The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that veteran actor and director Robert Duvall, along with his wife Luciana,... [continue] Fred Thompson's Three Problems on the Right By Ryan Sager | Wed, 5 Sep 2007 at 12:21 PM Excerpt: Ahead of Fred Thompson's announcement tonight on Leno and shortly after midnight via Internet, a few rather nasty problems with the right are popping up: 1) The Arlington Group: As Jim Geraghty reports here, Mr. Thompson seems to be having trouble with... [continue] Political Video of the Day II: Romney's 'Energy' By Ryan Sager | Wed, 5 Sep 2007 at 11:29 AM Excerpt: Mitt Romney has launched a new TV ad, "Energy." No, it has nothing to do with energy policy. It has everything to do with promoting the campaign theme of Mr. Romney's "energy," as opposed to Fred Thompson's lethargy (the script is below the fold):... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Thompson's First Ad By Ryan Sager | Wed, 5 Sep 2007 at 11:22 AM Excerpt: You read the script last night, now see the ad (to air tonight during the GOP Fox News debate):... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 5 Sep 2007 at 2:31 AM Excerpt: According to the Washington Post, this is the script for the ad Fred Thompson will run tonight during the Republican debate on Fox News: The script of the ad, titled "Debate" FDT: I'm Fred Thompson and I approve this message. On the next President's... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 5 Sep 2007 at 1:26 AM Excerpt: I'm supposed to be on the air this morning (Wednesday), on the Brian Lehrer radio show. I'm told the segment will be from roughly 10:20 a.m. - 10:40 a.m., and it will be about the Republican debate on Fox News tonight and Fred Thompson's entry into the... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Giuliani's Mistakes By Ryan Sager | Wed, 5 Sep 2007 at 12:11 AM Excerpt: Leftist director Robert Greenwald ("Outfoxed," "Wal-Mart: The High Cost of Low Price") puts out a short hit video on Rudy Giuliani:... [continue] Tuesday Night Revolving Door Blogging By Ryan Sager | Wed, 5 Sep 2007 at 12:00 AM Excerpt: Jim Mills, formerly of Fox News and recently of the Fred Thompson press shop, is apparently out. To quote Jennifer Rubin over at the American Spectator blog, it's gotten to the point where I'm just not entering these folks into my Treo anymore. Maybe new... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 4 Sep 2007 at 10:55 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani wins a California straw poll. Fred Thompson wins a Minnesota straw poll. Duncan Hunter wins a Texas straw poll. And straw polls remain ... pretty much worthless.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 4 Sep 2007 at 4:42 PM Excerpt: Here's a tiny bit more info on the first ads the newly minted Fred Thompson campaign will airing, from the campaign: Friends of Fred Thompson Committee today announces that it plans to air a 30-second television commercial entitled "Debate" tomorrow... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 4 Sep 2007 at 11:47 AM Excerpt: Karen Hanretty has joined the Fred Thompson campaign as deputy communications director. Ms. Hanretty was press secretary to Arnold Schwarzenegger's special-election campaign for governor.... [continue] Political Video of the Weekend: Matalin on New Hampshire vs. Leno By Ryan Sager | Sun, 2 Sep 2007 at 4:39 PM Excerpt: Mary Matalin explains why Leno is more important than New Hampshire to the Fred Thompson campaign:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 2 Sep 2007 at 1:23 PM Excerpt: Here are the results of the Diageo/Hotline poll (PDF) that the Fred Thompson campaign is touting this weekend (the change from the last poll in July in parentheses): Giuliani: 27% (+7) Thompson: 17% (-2) Romney: 15% (+7) McCain: 12% (-5) Huckabee: 4%... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 2 Sep 2007 at 12:12 PM Excerpt: Yes, it's Labor Day Weekend. But before I head out for some utterly non-politics-related, county-fair action, a few notes on the weekend's political news. Senator Craig is gone, so I'll just leave that be. But there are a few items of note on the Fred... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 31 Aug 2007 at 8:16 PM Excerpt: ...to resign tomorrow.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 31 Aug 2007 at 4:06 PM Excerpt: That FEC complaint filed against Fred Thompson alleging that he abused his "testing the waters" status must have teeth. Mr. Thompson is giving back tens of thousands of dollars that were raised by his committee for use in the general election.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 31 Aug 2007 at 3:50 PM Excerpt: TNT is going to keep running "Law & Order" reruns featuring Fred Thompson as Arthur Branch. NBC is going to stop running them. The FCC's regulations require TV networks to provide "equal time" to candidates, but they've never been applied to cable... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 31 Aug 2007 at 3:27 PM Excerpt: This gay-marriage news in Iowa would be a bigger deal, I think, if Mitt Romney weren't already the assumed winner there. Iowans are outraged over the actions of an activist judge; Mr. Romney supports an amendment to the Constitution defining marriage as... [continue] Univision Debate Postponed Indefinitely By Ryan Sager | Thu, 30 Aug 2007 at 5:57 PM Excerpt: The Times reports that the Republican debate on Univision for which only John McCain had signed up for has been postponed indefinitely: Univisiσn, the Spanish-language television network, is postponing its G.O.P. debate. Only Senator John McCain... [continue] Thompson In; September 6; Via Webcast By Ryan Sager | Thu, 30 Aug 2007 at 4:16 PM Excerpt: As mentioned earlier, Fred Thompson's now-almost-a-campaign held a conference call with supporters today starting at 4 p.m. It's just concluded. Mr. Thompson will announce that he is officially a candidate for president on Thursday, September 6, by... [continue] Political Video of the Day II: POW! By Ryan Sager | Thu, 30 Aug 2007 at 12:52 PM Excerpt: The McCain team has come out with a 12 minute Internet video focusing on the senator's POW experience, called "Courageous Service." While Mr. McCain's POW story is compelling, it's far from unknown, and doesn't seem like it's nearly enough to reboot his... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 30 Aug 2007 at 12:46 PM Excerpt: The Thompson campaign will hold a conference call for supporters today at 4 p.m.*, with political director Randy Enwright. Thompson-connected sources say the call is supposed to discuss what's going on in the next 12 or so days, with an announcement of... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Romney Jogs By Ryan Sager | Thu, 30 Aug 2007 at 11:12 AM Excerpt: Here's Mitt Romney's newest ad, which features him jogging. It's called "Leadership" and begins running in Iowa and New Hampshire today: The ad's script is below the fold... Script For "Leadership" (TV:30): ANNOUNCER: "An Olympics hit by scandal... [continue] Mitt Romney vs. Barry Goldwater By Ryan Sager | Thu, 30 Aug 2007 at 10:50 AM Excerpt: When the Larry Craig scandal broke, Mitt Romney quickly threw the senator previously the head of his senate outreach effort under the bus. He not only let Mr. Craig resign from the campaign (which is more than understandable), but he also took to the... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Arizona Edition By Ryan Sager | Thu, 30 Aug 2007 at 1:38 AM Excerpt: Could John McCain lose his home state in the GOP primary? Well, given that the Arizona primary takes place on February 26, chances are he won't even be in the race by then. But a new poll from Arizona State University shows he's got some close... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 29 Aug 2007 at 2:21 PM Excerpt: The New Hampshire Union-Leader says that if Fred Thompson doesn't come to the state's September 5 GOP primary debate, he's a chicken.... [continue] Political Video of the Day: McCain Re-Announces on Leno By Ryan Sager | Wed, 29 Aug 2007 at 1:30 PM Excerpt: John McCain on Leno last night:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 29 Aug 2007 at 12:24 PM Excerpt: Wyoming has moved up its delegate selection to January 5 ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire (at least for now). This isn't a primary, though, so perhaps it won't have much impact. The AP explains: Wyoming doesn't have caucuses or primaries. Instead, the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 29 Aug 2007 at 12:16 PM Excerpt: A new Survey USA poll out today shows 55% of Idahoans want Senator Craig, of bathroom scandal fame, to resign. (See Question 3.) The Politico runs down the many potential replacements for Mr. Craig, should he decline to run of step down: There would be... [continue] McCain Qualifies for Federal Matching Funds By Ryan Sager | Tue, 28 Aug 2007 at 5:08 PM Excerpt: John McCain has become the first presidential candidate to qualify for federal matching funds. This doesn't mean Mr. McCain is taking matching funds his campaign says it hasn't made up its mind but it does mean he's submitted forms asking to qualify,... [continue] Mayor Bloomberg Has No Reason To Run for President By Ryan Sager | Tue, 28 Aug 2007 at 4:58 PM Excerpt: After all, Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee both support a national smoking ban.... [continue] California Field Poll: Giuliani Leads, McCain Sinks By Ryan Sager | Tue, 28 Aug 2007 at 1:44 PM Excerpt: Here are the results of the latest California Field Poll: Giuliani: 35% Romney: 14% Thompson: 13% McCain: 9% On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 49%-19%. Mrs. Clinton may not be counting on a February 5 strategy, but if she gets... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 28 Aug 2007 at 12:55 PM Excerpt: Tomorrow is John McCain's 71st birthday. Last week, we had an appeal from his wife to cough up for a birthday present. Now, we have a video from Mr. McCain's mother. View it here. The text of the email appeal to which this was attached is below the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 28 Aug 2007 at 11:52 AM Excerpt: Ben Smith reports that Rudy Giuliani's campaign is looking into ad buys in Illinois, Georgia, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Except for West Virginia which is running a very odd primary this cycle all of those states are February 5 states. Just... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 27 Aug 2007 at 11:18 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson has updated his campaign blog from the road: This past Saturday I was at the Midwest Leadership Forum in Indianapolis, Indiana, with state Republican leaders from across the Midwest. I shared my concerns about the direction this country... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 27 Aug 2007 at 10:43 PM Excerpt: The headline? Those are two presidential tickets you won't be seeing come 2008. The Romney campaign has disappeared a video from his YouTube channel of Senator Craig, Republican of Idaho, praising Mitt Romney. Mr. Craig, currently caught up in an... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 27 Aug 2007 at 10:34 PM Excerpt: Earlier, we heard from Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. Now, we have a statement from Mitt Romney: "Attorney General Gonzales should be recognized for his many years of public service to the State of Texas and to the people of the United States at both... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 27 Aug 2007 at 1:25 PM Excerpt: RCP has a roundup of the Democratic candidates' responses to the resignation of Alberto Gonzales as attorney general (nothing too shocking or juicy). So far, the Republican candidates have yet to issue statements. A press spokesman for John McCain says... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 27 Aug 2007 at 1:12 PM Excerpt: More staff shake-ups at the Thompson non-campaign. The narrative the campaign seems to be pushing is that this shows that Bill Lacy, the new campaign manager, is large and in charge and, thus, that there's no longer a "Jeri problem," of Mr. Thompson's... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Possible Alberto Gonzales Replacement By Ryan Sager | Mon, 27 Aug 2007 at 12:40 PM Excerpt: Some have noted the similarity between this and Alberto Gonzales's testimony before Congress:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 27 Aug 2007 at 10:15 AM Excerpt: Attorney General Alberto Gonzales will announce his resignation later today. The likely replacement is apparently Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 26 Aug 2007 at 1:02 PM Excerpt: The phrase "the YouTube campaign" has been thrown around a bit this election cycle to denote the influence of short Internet videos in the presidential race at large. It may, however, be a phrase better applied to Fred Thompson's effort. Robert Novak... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 24 Aug 2007 at 11:02 AM Excerpt: Some confusion this morning about the Romney health care plan: "Romney favors national health care modeled on Massachusetts plan," Glen Johnson, AP "Romney Won't Adapt Mass. Plan," Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post "Romney's Federal Prescription," Mary... [continue] Fox Poll: McCain Drops to Fourth; Romney Takes Third By Ryan Sager | Fri, 24 Aug 2007 at 10:42 AM Excerpt: Here are the GOP numbers from the latest Fox News poll (with the change since the last poll in July in parentheses): Giuliani: 29% (+2) Thompson: 14% (-2) Romney: 11% (+2) McCain: 7% (-9) The biggest news here would have to be the McCain plummet by 9... [continue] Pew: Giuliani More Popular Than Clinton By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 2:48 PM Excerpt: Hillary Clinton is popular with her base. Rudy Giuliani is not as popular with his. However... Mr. Giuliani is popular with the electorate as a whole. Mrs. Clinton is far less so. All that and more in the latest report out from Pew.... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Charlie Cook Edition By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 1:57 PM Excerpt: I'd missed this yesterday from Bloomberg News: "For all intents and purposes, McCain's campaign is over," said Charlie Cook, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington. "I see no real sign of life." Mr. Cook has been known to, as... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Birthday Edition By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 1:13 PM Excerpt: I just received the following email in my inbox: Dear Ryan, Could you do something special for my husband? To my great surprise, this was not a Nigerian email scam. Instead, I'm being asked to sign an online birthday card for John McCain (it's next... [continue] Q-Poll: Romney Gets Boost at Expense of Thompson in Pennsylvania By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 12:16 PM Excerpt: The latest Q-Poll out of Pennsylvania shows the state is still Rudy Giuliani country, but Mitt Romney has gotten a minor boost out of his Iowa win cutting into Fred Thompson's support. The candidates number in PA are as follows (with the change since... [continue] Political Audio of the Day: Giuliani on Immigration on Ingraham By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 12:01 PM Excerpt: Here's Rudy Giuliani on the Laura Ingraham radio show discussing illegal immigration: Click here to listen to MP3. The segment is earning rave reviews, even from skeptics.... [continue] Time: Giuliani's Mixed Record on Terrorism By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 11:33 AM Excerpt: Time magazine has taken a look at Rudy Giuliani's record on terrorism and foreign policy. It's a skeptical article, but fairly balanced unlike, say, anything Wayne Barrett has ever written about the former mayor. Its ultimate conclusion: In addition... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 12:36 AM Excerpt: The latest Rasmussen numbers out of South Carolina have Fred Thompson at the front of the pack and John McCain down: Thompson: 23% Giuliani: 21% McCain: 14% Romney: 10% Huckabee: 6% As has been the case elsewhere, Mr. Thompson does better with men,... [continue] Thompson: 'We're not allowed to announce before we announce' By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 12:28 AM Excerpt: Apparently less than concerned with the FEC complaint that's been filed against him, Fred Thompson was out on the air again yesterday announcing his non-candidacy: "We're not allowed to announce before we announce, but I can tell you that it won't be... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 23 Aug 2007 at 12:24 AM Excerpt: So, Mitt Romney is for letting the states decide about abortion, until he's for a Human Life Amendment to the Constitution which would impose a pro-life policy on every state. As one Republican operative friend emailed today: The guy who has to explain... [continue] Political Video of the Day: The First Green President By Ryan Sager | Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 4:22 PM Excerpt: A new ad in Iowa, from the League of Conservation Voters:... [continue] Rasmusen: Romney More Negative Than Clinton By Ryan Sager | Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 3:57 PM Excerpt: A new Rasmussen report shows that however high Hilary Clinton's negative ratings might be, Mitt Romney's are worse. 44% of likely voters would vote against Mr. Romney, as opposed to 43% against Mrs. Clinton. The Romney-haters include 25% of Republicans... [continue] Gallup Takes Issue With Rove Analysis By Ryan Sager | Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 3:16 PM Excerpt: Gallup today has issued a response to Karl Rove's public speculation that while Hillary Clinton may be the Democratic nominee, she is too "fatally flawed" in terms of public hostility toward her to be elected president: Rove is correct in noting that... [continue] CO Senate: Not Looking Good for the GOP By Ryan Sager | Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 12:51 PM Excerpt: Liz Mair looks at the race for Senator Allard's seat in 2008. Mr. Allard, a Republican, is not running for reelection. Rep. Mark Udall, a Democrat, is running on the Democratic side. Former Rep. Bob Schaffer is supposed to be running on the Republican... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 12:49 PM Excerpt: Social conservative godfather Paul Weyrich has a straightforward prediction about 2008: The Republicans will lose the White House.... [continue] Rasmussen: Romney Lead Solidifies in Iowa By Ryan Sager | Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 12:30 PM Excerpt: According to the latest Rasmussen poll in the state, Mitt Romney's Iowa lead has solidified (change since May in parentheses): Romney: 33% (+14) Giuliani: 14% (-4) Thompson: 12% (+3) Huckabee: 8% (+6) McCain: 6% (-12) Brownback: 4% (+2) Tancredo: 3%... [continue] McCain Death Watch: 2010 Edition By Ryan Sager | Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 12:17 AM Excerpt: John McCain's senate seat isn't up until 2010. But if Arizona's Democratic governor, Janet Napolitano, challenged him for it, this poll says she'd win, 47%-36%.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 12:10 AM Excerpt: Jonathan Martin catches John McCain going easy on Rudy Giuliani, so as to take a shot at Mitt Romney. Mr. Giuliani has said repeatedly in the campaign that he'd be supporting Mr. McCain if not for his own candidacy. It looks like a play for Mr. McCain's... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 21 Aug 2007 at 11:44 PM Excerpt: The Fred Thompson vs. Rudy Giuliani war of words has escalated. Mr. Giuliani's communications director, Katie Levinson, has gone on the record with this: Those who live in New York in the real world - not on TV - know that Rudy Giuliani's record of... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 21 Aug 2007 at 2:08 PM Excerpt: Mitt Romney was up with a radio ad this morning decrying "cities like Newark, San Francisco and New York City that adopt sanctuary policies." Now, on his non-campaign blog, Fred Thompson has launched his own attack on Gotham. In the post, Mr. Thompson... [continue] Political Audio of the Day: Romney vs. Giuliani By Ryan Sager | Tue, 21 Aug 2007 at 10:02 AM Excerpt: Mitt Romney's campaign has launched a new radio ad, "Exceptional": It's another swat at Rudy Giuliani, listing New York City as a sanctuary city that encourages illegal immigration.... [continue] Club for Growth: Romney a Mixed Bag By Ryan Sager | Tue, 21 Aug 2007 at 9:42 AM Excerpt: The Club for Growth has released its latest candidate white paper, evaluating the "pro-growth" records of the GOP's 2008 contenders, this time taking on Mitt Romney. The group finds him a decidedly mixed bag: Romney's strident opposition to the flat tax;... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 20 Aug 2007 at 6:17 PM Excerpt: For anyone who's missed it, Michael Bloomberg appears to have told Dan Rather, rather unequivocally, that he's not running for president. The interview will run on HDNet, the crazy network Mr. Rather had to go to after he was booted from CBS.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 20 Aug 2007 at 3:26 PM Excerpt: At 4:15 p.m. Eastern time (1:15 p.m. Pacific), I'll be on "Politics of Money," on AM1000 in California. You can check out the show's Web site here, and I believe listen live over the Internet.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 20 Aug 2007 at 2:45 PM Excerpt: A complaint has been filed against the Fred Thompson non-campaign, alleging violations of the "testing the waters" committee status that the Fred Thompson for President Exploratory Committee has been using. It comes from liberal blogger Lane Hudson, who... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 20 Aug 2007 at 2:33 PM Excerpt: Libertarians may love to hate Rudy Giuliani, but he's popped up on one of their strongholds today: the Reason Foundation's Web site (the Reason Foundation publishes Reason magazine). His piece's title: "Management Requires Measurement: The Key to New... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 20 Aug 2007 at 12:38 PM Excerpt: Jim Geraghty has a full report on this morning's McCain blogger conference call. The main news: He's going to be launching a "No Surrender Tour," pegging the hopes of his near-dead campaign on his support for the Iraq war. I don't get this strategy for... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 20 Aug 2007 at 11:07 AM Excerpt: Ron Paul wins two straw polls: Alabama and New Hampshire.... [continue] Shorter New Yorker Giuliani Profile By Ryan Sager | Mon, 20 Aug 2007 at 12:16 AM Excerpt: Shorter New Yorker Giuliani profile: . For an awfully long profile, there's not an awful lot that's new. If you know a decent amount about Rudy Giuliani's past and have been paying vague attention to the current campaign, the profile probably represents... [continue] Latest Gallup: Romney Up, McCain Down By Ryan Sager | Sun, 19 Aug 2007 at 11:35 PM Excerpt: Here are he numbers from the latest Gallup poll: (change from August 3-5 in parentheses) Giuliani: 32% (-1) Thompson: 19% (-2) Romney: 14% (+6) McCain: 11% (-5) Mitt Romney may be getting a boost from the Iowa Straw Poll though, his rise also could... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 19 Aug 2007 at 1:06 AM Excerpt: I'm scheduled to be on MSNBC tomorrow morning (Sunday), at 8:30 & 9:40, talking about Rudy Giuliani. If for some odd reason you get up before 11:30 a.m. on Sundays, tune in.... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Thompson Arrives in Iowa By Ryan Sager | Sat, 18 Aug 2007 at 12:10 AM Excerpt: Fred Thompson arrives in Iowa. Fox News covers it, with a bit of skepticism (and misidentifies him as a former senator from North Carolina ... at leas they have him down as a Republican!): And then there was this little shot:... [continue] Giuliani: The Elephant in the Room (or, rather, the parade) By Ryan Sager | Sat, 18 Aug 2007 at 12:03 AM Excerpt: An over-enthusiastic Rudy-backer in New Hampshire tries to turn a parade into a circus. (via Martin)... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 17 Aug 2007 at 5:38 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson trips up on his campaign's "testing the waters" sham: "We are going to be getting in if we get in, and of course, we are in the testing the waters phase," he said. "We're going to be making a statement shortly that will cure all of that.... [continue] Thompson Opposes Gay Marriage Amendment By Ryan Sager | Fri, 17 Aug 2007 at 5:33 PM Excerpt: A CNN story earlier made it appear as if Fred Thompson were pledging to push for a federal constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. In this clarification sent to National Review, however, the Thompson campaign declares: Thompson believes that... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 17 Aug 2007 at 12:15 PM Excerpt: According to a new poll out of Nevada, Mitt Romney is leading in that state by 10%: Mitt Romney: 28% (March: 4%) Fred Thompson: 18% (March: n/a) Rudy Giuliani: 18% (March: 38%) John McCain: 8% (March: 18%) Newt Gingrich: 4% (March: 13%) Mike Huckabee:... [continue] Political Video of the Day: McCain on 'The Daily Show' By Ryan Sager | Fri, 17 Aug 2007 at 11:53 AM Excerpt: John McCain makes his 10th appearance on "The Daily Show." (You can also watch a bigger version on Comedy Central's site here.) Whatever else happens in this campaign, this guy's still funny:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 16 Aug 2007 at 3:24 PM Excerpt: If increasing Fred Thompson chatter were an indicator of an imminent entry into the presidential race, I'd have to say like the head of Homeland Security that I have a gut feeling we'll be hearing a definitive statement from the former Tennessee... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Golden State Edition By Ryan Sager | Thu, 16 Aug 2007 at 1:21 PM Excerpt: According to the latest Field Poll out of California, John McCain's support has plummeted to 9% now, from 24% in March. Rudy Giuliani is at 34% and has essentially stayed static. Mitt Romney has risen to 14% today, from 7% in March. Fred Thompson has... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 16 Aug 2007 at 12:57 PM Excerpt: For now, I'll say stick the the Great Law of Headline Question Marks (if it has a question mark, the answer is no). But Reid Wilson over at RealClearPolitics is making the argument that it may be too late for Fred Thompson: Fred Thompson had his chance... [continue] Strategic Vision: Giuliani Lead Holds in Florida By Ryan Sager | Thu, 16 Aug 2007 at 12:52 PM Excerpt: Here's the latest Strategic Vision poll out of Florida, taken August 10-12 (the Iowa Straw Poll was August 11): Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only) Rudy Giuliani: 34% Fred Thompson: 18% Mitt Romney: 10%... [continue] Conservative Blogger and McCain Consultant: Movement doesn't 'give a s--t about ordinary people' By Ryan Sager | Wed, 15 Aug 2007 at 6:09 PM Excerpt: A consultant to John McCain's presidential campaign in charge of online outreach, Patrick Hynes of Ankle Biting Pundits, has just penned a screed, titled "Identity Group Conservatism," decrying the current state of the Republican Party and the... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Giuliani on Immigration By Ryan Sager | Wed, 15 Aug 2007 at 5:01 PM Excerpt: This is pretty damning heading into Mitt Romney territory: (via TPM) See a transcript of Mr. Giuliani's 1996 remarks below the fold...At the Kennedy School of Government: GIULIANI: But then I think we have to, with some degree of wisdom, come to... [continue] Q-Poll: Romney in Second; McCain Heading for Single Digits By Ryan Sager | Wed, 15 Aug 2007 at 3:14 PM Excerpt: The latest Quinnipiac poll, conducted August 7-13 (the Iowa Straw Poll was on the 11th, meaning the poll was taken on four days before the straw poll, on the day of the straw poll, and for two days after), gives us the following numbers: Aug. ... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 15 Aug 2007 at 2:53 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson, the non-candidate, has given a non-endorsement to the Fair Tax: I've appreciated seeing the Fair Tax folks when I'm out on the road, as well as their enthusiasm when they've come to my events. Although I wish they'd get my good side when... [continue] More on Ingraham on Immigrants By Ryan Sager | Wed, 15 Aug 2007 at 2:34 PM Excerpt: It turns out there's now a full version of my Laura Ingraham appearance online: Link: sevenload.com Listen to the whole thing to hear Ms. Ingraham insist that we wouldn't have people being killed by drunk drivers if only there were no illegal... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 15 Aug 2007 at 1:25 PM Excerpt: Don't tell Boston fans, but Mitt Romney owns a stake in the hated New York Yankees' empire: some stock in the Yankees Entertainment and Sports (YES) network. As the Boston Herald puts it, "The YES network broadcasts the Bronx Bombers' games and is partly... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 15 Aug 2007 at 12:14 PM Excerpt: Yesterday morning, I went on the Laura Ingraham show. You can click here to listen to the podcast. (It's only the first 5 minutes of a 15 minute interview.) The conversation deals quickly with the whole Sam Brownback kerfuffle, and then moves onto what... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 15 Aug 2007 at 10:04 AM Excerpt: Click here to listen to Rudy Giuliani's new Iowa radio ad: "Fence." And here's the script: Voice Over: "Here's Rudy Giuliani" Mayor Giuliani: "It frustrates me that if someone comes here illegally, in addition to everything else that's involved in... [continue] NRO: High Praise for Rudy's Immigration Positioning By Ryan Sager | Tue, 14 Aug 2007 at 6:40 PM Excerpt: People said I was crazy when I argued that Rudy Giuliani would be able to overcome problems with the Republican base, but he just keeps on doing it. Here's National Review's editor, Rich Lowry, going gaga over Mr. Giuliani's new position on immigration:... [continue] Interior West Watch: Hillary in the Centennial State By Ryan Sager | Tue, 14 Aug 2007 at 4:51 PM Excerpt: Liz Mair points out an interesting poll out of Colorado, performed by Rasmussen. The poll runs some general-election scenarios, basically Hillary Clinton versus the Republican Big Four, and finds that everyone ends up in a statistical tie with Mrs.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 14 Aug 2007 at 12:30 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson is blogging up a storm. Here he is today on earmark reform: The American people deserve to know more than who sponsored special interest legislation. They deserve earmark reform that puts an end to special interest earmarking and provides... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 14 Aug 2007 at 10:54 AM Excerpt: When it comes to the New Hampshire Republican primary, there's one newspaper endorsement sought above all others: the New Hampshire Union-Leader (despite the fact that it's had limited impact on election results). And lately, the Union-Leader and its... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 11:37 PM Excerpt: Having given it a bit more thought, I think Byron York is right. I should have been clear that Sam Brownback was quoting what Mother Teresa said to him when he said at the Iowa Straw Poll, "All for Jesus. All for Jesus. All for Jesus. All for Jesus." I... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 11:04 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson posts at his campaign blog: If you listen to folks who oppose immigration and border enforcement, you get the feeling they think we put locks on our doors to keep everybody out. The truth is we have locks so we can choose who comes in. Read... [continue] CBS: Rudy Up, Romney Up; Fred Down, McCain Down By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 7:46 PM Excerpt: CBS News has a new poll out on the GOP primary. It only gives respondents the choice between the top-four candidates. It was completed August 8-12, before the Iowa Straw Poll results were known. Here are the results: Now July June ... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 7:16 PM Excerpt: Byron York writes over at National Review to "correct" the part of my column today where I quote Sam Brownback declaring: "All for Jesus. All for Jesus. All for Jesus. All for Jesus." York: In the portion of the speech that Sager cited, Brownback... [continue] Straw Poll Death Toll: Sticks at 1 By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 4:56 PM Excerpt: Sam Brownback failed to place second in the Iowa Straw Poll, losing out to Mike Huckabee, but for now at least it seems he's hanging in there. From his campaign: Brownback Exceeds Expectations at Ames Straw Poll Top three finish provides boost and... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 3:27 PM Excerpt: Andrew Sullivan notes: Huckabee As VP? After Ames and the debates, it seems an obvious choice for the current front-runners. All of them - Giuliani, Romney, McCain, FThompson - will have problems with the Christianist core of the GOP. Hillary will only... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 11:11 AM Excerpt: I haven't had a chance to read it yet it runs roughly 15,000 words but the New Yorker has a mega-profile of Rudy Giuliani. I wouldn't expect it to be terribly positive.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 10:14 AM Excerpt: With Mike Huckabee's surprise second-place finish in the Iowa straw poll, it's time to start watching for signs of a bounce: poll numbers, press coverage, etc. Let's start with press coverage. Today, the New York Times takes a look at Mr. Huckabee's... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 13 Aug 2007 at 9:50 AM Excerpt: The former governor of Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson, has dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination, having finished in sixth place in the Iowa Straw Poll. Mr. Thompson said before the race that he would drop out if he didn't place first or... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 9:38 PM Excerpt: After a long day and night of microanalysis of Ames, let me leave you this evening with a quick rundown on what I think it all means: * The headline out of tonight is clearly Mike Huckabee's second-place finish, just 13.4 points behind Mitt Romney. Mr.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 9:25 PM Excerpt: Results are certified by State Auditor David Vaudt and Chairman Ray Hoffmann: 1. Mitt Romney 4516 31.5% 2. Mike Huckabee 2587 18.1% 3. Sam Brownback 2192 15.3% 4. Tom Tancredo 1961 13.7% 5. Ron Paul 1305 9.1% 6. Tommy Thompson 1039 7.3% 7. Fred... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 8:01 PM Excerpt: ...not yet. But it's getting nutty in here with the Ron Paul people chanting wildly. 7:02: And the announcement is that it will be at least another 15 minutes before the results. 7:05: It should probably be noted that one of the effects of Mitt Romney... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 6:56 PM Excerpt: According to RCP Blog, attendance at this year's Ames poll is around 30,000-33,000. That marks a decline from 40,000 in 1999. There may also end up being fewer votes cast. It certainly doesn't help that three out of four major candidates aren't here ... [continue] Brownback Keeps His Cool And His Crowd By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 6:37 PM Excerpt: Byron York notes that Sam Brownback has done the best job of keeping his folks on site as things wind down. There's a good reason for that: air conditioning. His is the only tent with it. As someone who just came from eating pulled pork in the blissful... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Paulites At Ames By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 4:47 PM Excerpt: From Ames, the Ron Paul minions storm the Straw Poll:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 4:20 PM Excerpt: They're making a big showing right now as the senator is introduced. Does it rival Mitt? We'll find out... Bold claim: "As president, I will rebuild the American family." Pander: "We need to be more dependent on the Midwest for energy than on the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 4:05 PM Excerpt: ...the crowd could hardly be less enthusiastic for Tommy Thompson. Aside from the people put up front to fill out the TV frame in favor of the candidate, there's hardly a person clapping or even paying attention. Mr. Thompson was a good governor and an... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 3:55 PM Excerpt: Who?... [continue] Who Hearts Huckabee? (Yes, I've Used This Headline Before. I Like It.) By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 3:16 PM Excerpt: Mike Huckabee comes out swinging hard at Mitt Romney: "I can't buy you. ... I can't even rent you." But, he says, Iowans have an opportunity to prove that they are mature voters, thoughtful and savvy about the process voters who know they are buying... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 3:13 PM Excerpt: As the Ron Paul folks beat a very noisy retreat from the coliseum, Laura Ingraham took a few shots at them: 1) Calling them the "Peace Train" (here, that's an insult) 2) Hectoring: How many of you are eligible to vote? As I mentioned earlier, probably... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 2:57 PM Excerpt: Ron Paul comes in after a very boisterous march-in by his supporters, chanting, "Real change, Ron Paul!" K. Lo. has this right: Ron Paul has the LOUDEST supporters. Ron Paul leads off (aside from a brief shout-out to peace) with the fact that he is... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 2:47 PM Excerpt: John Cox says he's the son of a single mother ... and if abortion had been legal in the 1950s, he would have been aborted. Did his mother tell him this? Not nice.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 2:41 PM Excerpt: He's speaking. They played a YouTube video of his before he came on. It tries to tie 9/11 to illegal immigrants:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 2:33 PM Excerpt: Rep. Tom Tancredo just finished. I tell you, nothing bothers a Tancredo supporter more than having to "Dial 1" for English. This, apparently, is very tricky. The other big theme of the Tancredo talk: America is persecuting Christians while coddling... [continue] Romney: A Button on Every Computer By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 2:12 PM Excerpt: The candidates are speaking now... Mitt Romney says he wants "a button on every computer" for parents to block obscenity. He also said he wants to start enforcing the nation's obscenity laws. Apparently, a crackdown on the First Amendment is expected... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 2:05 PM Excerpt: Just some quick hits: * Again, the most notable thing to attendees is the Ron Paul presence. To quote one woman I passed: "Boy, the Ron Paul folk have sure gone all out." * I've heard numerous reports of Mitt Romney buses pulling in half full (or, uh,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 1:29 PM Excerpt: Well, I think I answered my Ron Paul question after battling the sun for about an hour... Out of staters, overwhelmingly. I went to talk to the five Ron Paul folks holding a big poster outside the entrance. 0-5. Not one from Iowa. They'd driven in from... [continue] Welcome to Ames, Ron Paul Country By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 12:14 PM Excerpt: Just got to the Ames Straw Poll after many mishaps... The first thing a visitor notices: the Ron Paul presence. I predicted he'd come in 7th in the poll. But the first thing you see when you get here is countless Ron Paul signs and Ron Paul workers.... [continue] LP GOP Index: McCain's Fall, Fred's Rise By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 6:58 AM Excerpt: I've now got an updated index of the GOP national polls for July and a preliminary data point for August. You can see the graph below the fold, but in the meantime here are some of the interesting trends: * Giuliani: His national numbers hit bottom in... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 6:55 AM Excerpt: Well, OK, I'm still in Chicago, waiting for an early flight ... but here's one headline from this morning: Iowa's governor insists the state's caucuses will remain in January of 2008, not slide to December 2007 to keep up with changes in South Carolina... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 10 Aug 2007 at 9:24 PM Excerpt: I love flight delays. There's something about an airport bar that just makes me content. (Aside from the obvious.) Anyway, I should be on time for Ames, but I've got some serious time to burn in La Guardia and an unfortunate stopover in Chicago ... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 10 Aug 2007 at 6:25 PM Excerpt: So, I'm in a cab on the way to a plane to another plane to a rental car to Ames, Iowa, and the Ames Straw Poll. What better time to offer some seat-of-the-pants predictions? (If I'm off, I'll claim that you can't trust predictions from a guy writing from... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 10 Aug 2007 at 3:22 PM Excerpt: The AP runs this current primary calendar note, though, that New Hampshire's and Iowa's dates are very much in play: JANUARY Jan 14: Iowa caucuses Jan 19: Nevada caucuses, South Carolina GOP Jan. 22: New Hampshire; Wyoming GOP caucuses Jan. 29:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 10 Aug 2007 at 3:11 PM Excerpt: ...on why Mitt Romney is attacking Rudy Giuliani right now on immigration.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 10 Aug 2007 at 2:53 PM Excerpt: Over at his campaign blog, Fred Thompson weighs in on the gas tax: Whoa now. Let's hold our horses a minute and think about the calls for new tax increases to fix our infrastructure problems. The Minneapolis bridge collapse is a tragedy, but we can't let... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 10 Aug 2007 at 2:36 PM Excerpt: In my column this morning, I gave a roundup of what we can and cannot expect from the Ames Straw Poll tomorrow (can: some candidates will be knocked out / cannot: who's most likely to win the GOP primary). Well, today the expectations game continues...... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 9 Aug 2007 at 5:02 PM Excerpt: An odd press release from the Thompson non-campaign about today's announced primary schedule shift: Thompson Committee Unconcerned by Primary Schedule McLean, Va.The Friends of Fred Thompson testing the waters committee said it was unconcerned by the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 9 Aug 2007 at 3:05 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani's campaign is opening a headquarters in North Dakota (nickname: the Nothing State): The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee announced today that the campaign will open its North Dakota state headquarters on Friday, August 10th at 10:00 AM... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 9 Aug 2007 at 2:20 PM Excerpt: Longtime Rudy Giuliani skeptic Charlie Cook starts to come around to the conclusion that maybe just maybe the longtime Republican frontrunner has a chance at the nomination: "McCain's decline has afforded Giuliani an opportunity to stabilize and... [continue] Political Video of the Day: McCain's Misinformation By Ryan Sager | Thu, 9 Aug 2007 at 12:43 PM Excerpt: In this "Today Show" clip, John McCain claims he never intended to compete in the Straw Poll: That, however, is not what his campaign said when it launched its Iowa leadership team a while back: "The influential state leadership team will continue... [continue] Tommy Thompson Drops Out of Race By Ryan Sager | Thu, 9 Aug 2007 at 10:41 AM Excerpt: Well, all but... This is from a blast email from his campaign: "Tommy Thompson has made it clear that if he doesn't finish first or second this week in Ames, Iowa at the straw poll, he will not go on in this race." Another one bites the dust.... [continue] University of Iowa Poll: Romney Up; Giuliani, McCain Way Down By Ryan Sager | Thu, 9 Aug 2007 at 12:56 AM Excerpt: The University of Iowa last polled in late March. Here are their results on the eve of the Iowa Straw Poll (with the change since late March in parentheses, when available): Romney: 27% (+10) Giuliani: 11% (-9) Thompson: 7% Brownback: 4% Tancredo: 4%... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 9:15 PM Excerpt: South Carolina's "The State" reports that the Republican primary there will be moved to January 19. By law, New Hampshire's primary has to be a week before any similar contest meaning it could take place January 12 at the latest. But that's a... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 5:00 PM Excerpt: Tomorrow, South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson is expected to announce that he is moving the party's primary date (currently set for February 2) up ahead of Florida's scheduled date of January 29. Mr. Dawson will make the announcement... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 4:39 PM Excerpt: ...details the Tennessee Christian Coalition's concerns about Fred Thompson.... [continue] McCain: A New Campaign Chairman By Ryan Sager | Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 4:33 PM Excerpt: According to the WSJ: Arizona Sen. John McCain, continuing to try to jumpstart his indebted presidential campaign, will name renowned Republican fund-raiser Robert Mosbacher Sr. as campaign chairman, according to a prominent Republican. The wealthy... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Operation Romney Election By Ryan Sager | Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 3:24 PM Excerpt: Mitt Romney says his sons may not be in Iraq, but they're serving their country in another way: by trying to get him elected: Transcript: Question: "Hi, my name's Rachel Griffiths, thank you so much for being here and asking for our comments. And I... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 11:03 AM Excerpt: The Iowa straw poll set for this Saturday is looking to be a bit less lustrous an affair than usual this year. With Mitt Romney as the lone representative of the top tier, what constitutes victory, and for whom is it a make-or-break event? Well,... [continue] Thompson Gets New Non-Campaign Manager By Ryan Sager | Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 10:23 AM Excerpt: The Thompson non-campaign sent out this notice this morning: Washington, D.C.Former Reagan White House political aide Bill Lacy today was named manager of Fred Thompson's testing the waters committee. "Bill Lacy worked in the campaigns of President... [continue] Quinnipiac: Hillary Inches Up in Swing States By Ryan Sager | Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 10:01 AM Excerpt: Here's the newsflash from Quinnipiac's latest swing-state poll, released this morning: "New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has inched ahead of her top Republican foe, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in Florida and Pennsylvania, and ties Giuliani... [continue] Giuliani on McCain-Feingold: 'it was a mistake' By Ryan Sager | Tue, 7 Aug 2007 at 3:32 PM Excerpt: The Giuliani campaign has now provided the rest of Rudy Giuliani's answer when he was asked whether he would roll back McCain-Feingold as president. Short answer: He would. Longer answer: I supported McCain-Feingold. I wasn't a big player in it because... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 7 Aug 2007 at 3:16 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson takes to his campaign blog today to extol the virtues of the Bush economy: Lower tax rates have increased economic growth to such a degree that we have been breaking tax-revenue records. Since the spring of 2003, the economy has had... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 7 Aug 2007 at 2:41 PM Excerpt: I don't know the rule Rich Lowry is referencing, but here's what he has to say: Giuliani & Gallup [Rich Lowry] I forget the exact rule, but I believe in recent memory pretty much every Republican leading in the Gallup poll a year out from the convention... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 7 Aug 2007 at 1:42 PM Excerpt: Not usually a surprising headline, but it is these days.... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Rudy: McCain Would Be My Guy By Ryan Sager | Tue, 7 Aug 2007 at 1:26 PM Excerpt: Perhaps this should go under McCain Death Watch, since other candidates don't tend to condescend to you this much unless you're on your way out. Also, I'm trying to track down if Rudy Giuliani ever answered the question as to whether he would roll back... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 7 Aug 2007 at 10:54 AM Excerpt: A new USA Today/Gallup poll out today shows everything holding pretty much steady in the Republican primary (change compared to last poll in July in parentheses): Giuliani: 30% (0) Thompson: 19% (-1) McCain: 14% (-2) Romney: 6% (-2) On the Democratic... [continue] Survey USA: Rudy Running Away With California By Ryan Sager | Tue, 7 Aug 2007 at 12:03 AM Excerpt: A new poll out from Survey USA shows Rudy Giuliani running away with California, with double the support of his nearest rival, Fred Thompson: Giuliani: 39% Thompson: 19% McCain: 16% Romney: 10% (via Taegan Goddard) Some key findings after the jump...... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Greyhound Edition By Ryan Sager | Tue, 7 Aug 2007 at 12:01 AM Excerpt: The Onion News Service reports: DES MOINES, IACiting a series of unanticipated disruptions to the Greyhound bus service, a red-faced and breathless Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) arrived 50 minutes after the start of the Republican presidential debates Sunday... [continue] Political Video of the Day II: Brownback to the Future By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 11:36 PM Excerpt: Earlier today, I mentioned how good and well-produced Fred Thompson's Web videos are. For an example of the opposite shoddy production, stilted delivery take a look at this video from Senator Brownback of Kansas attacking Mitt Romney:... [continue] Thompson Campaign: Thompson Just Like George W. By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 8:33 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson's new non-campaign bio a feature of I'm With Fred dot com 2.0 is a fascinating read, inasmuch as it provides insight into how the non-candidate will seek to shape his narrative, turning weaknesses into strengths and smoothing over the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 7:39 PM Excerpt: I'm With Fred dot com has announced a redesign. I've got to say it's rather spiffy. (Yes, spiffy.) New features include: Fred Thompson newsroom Fred Thompson bio information Fred Thompson discussing issues A downloads page for widgets, buttons, and... [continue] Newsweek Poll: Rudy Up, Fred Up, McCain Down By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 4:05 PM Excerpt: The latest Newsweek poll (with change from late June in parentheses): Giuliani: 30% (+3) Thompson: 22% (+3) McCain: 13% (-2) Romney: 10% (-2) Of course, all the changes are pretty much within the margin of error.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 2:53 PM Excerpt: RCP's Tom Bevan notes this about the coverage of yesterday's Republican debate: "Noticeably absent from the post debate analysis at yesterday's GOP gathering in Iowa was the phrase 'Fred Thompson was the debate's big winner.' It could be a small sign the... [continue] Leftwing Bloggers vs. Giuliani By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 2:35 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani has long been blessed by his enemies while some people may not like everything about him, the "right" people attack him, making it seem to conservatives that, whatever issue disagreements they might have with him, at least he's on "our... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 1:11 PM Excerpt: Is Caroline Giuliani, daughter of Rudy, supporting Barack Obama? Slate's got her belonging to the Facebook group "Barack Obama (One Million Strong for Barack)" at least until Slate made an inquiry this morning.... [continue] McCain: Sorry about the First, but what about the Fifth? By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 10:57 AM Excerpt: Having made his mark on Washington, D.C. and forever alienated conservatives by trampling on the First Amendment, John McCain is seeing now if he can make it up to the Republican base by promising to restore the Fifth Amendment. The Fifth Amendment,... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Gays for Giuliani By Ryan Sager | Mon, 6 Aug 2007 at 10:51 AM Excerpt: The following popped up in my inbox this morning: Hello, I'm a gay New York City resident who lived here while Rudy was Mayor. I appreciated his support of my community when he was mayor and am shocked and offended by his flip-flopping on gay issues.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 5 Aug 2007 at 11:41 PM Excerpt: ABC News is here. The Times is here. USA Today is here. And last, but certainly not least, is the Sun's own Russell Berman: In a debate broadcast on ABC's "This Week" yesterday from Des Moines, Iowa, Senator Obama of Illinois emerged as the favored... [continue] Rudi and Judi: It Was Macanudo By Ryan Sager | Sun, 5 Aug 2007 at 11:27 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani and Judith Nathan have finally decided to disclose where they met: Club Macanudo, a cigar bar on Manhattan's Upper East Side. According to the Web site: The couple apparently discloses this in an interview to be published in tomorrow's... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 5 Aug 2007 at 11:24 PM Excerpt: According to the Tampa Tribune, former Florida governor Bob Martinez is expected to endorse Rudy Giuliani tomorrow. Says the local paper: The Giuliani campaign has timed its announcement to steal some thunder from one of Giuliani's main competitors,... [continue] Washington Post/ABC News: Romney Up in Iowa By Ryan Sager | Sun, 5 Aug 2007 at 10:19 PM Excerpt: According to the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, released on the eve of the Iowa debate on "This Week," Mitt Romney is way up in Iowa, with Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson tied for second: Romney: 26% Giuliani: 14% Thompson: 13% McCain: 8%... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Rudy on His Mistakes By Ryan Sager | Sun, 5 Aug 2007 at 10:15 PM Excerpt: From today's Iowa debate on ABC's "This Week," Rudy Giuliani reflects on his mistakes (the Giuliani folks apparently think this was a good one, as they've posted it on YouTube themselves):... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 3 Aug 2007 at 10:57 AM Excerpt: In the Washington Post, former Bush speechwriter (and now Washington Post columnist) Michael Gerson makes an argument as to how Mitt Romney should deal with his Mormonism in the presidential campaign: Romney, however, should not make Kennedy's mistake... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 3 Aug 2007 at 10:22 AM Excerpt: There's a new Pew poll out: (change from last Pew poll in April in parentheses) Republicans Giuliani: 27% (-5) Thompson: 18% (+8) McCain: 16% (-7) Romney: 10% (+2) Democrats Clinton: 40% (+6) Obama: 21% (-3) Edwards: 11% (-7)Taking a look at the... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Club for Growth: 'We Hate Huckabee' By Ryan Sager | Thu, 2 Aug 2007 at 9:33 PM Excerpt: The Club for Growth presumable Rudy Giuliani supporters do not like Mike Huckabee. Thus, they're spending $85,000 on ads in Iowa right now (running all week on broadcast and cable) trying to knock the former Arkansas governor out of the race in the... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Bob Dole Edition By Ryan Sager | Thu, 2 Aug 2007 at 3:19 PM Excerpt: According to the Iowa Independent blog: Bob Dole always had a lot of nice things to say about fellow veteran John McCain. He even went so far, in May 1999, to publicly say he'd consider donating to McCain's campaign. This was while his own wife,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 2 Aug 2007 at 1:58 PM Excerpt: At 2 p.m. today, John McCain held his latest blogger conference call. The top of the agenda was attacking the Senate Democrats for their ethics bill, which Mr. McCain says he deems a pretty weak brew. But, he also hit some other topics. Perhaps the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 2 Aug 2007 at 10:26 AM Excerpt: The latest WSJ/NBC poll's results on the Republican side show Rudy Giuliani up, with his lead over Fred Thompson a bit bigger than it was in June: Giuliani: 33% Thompson: 20% McCain: 17% Romney: 11% Mr. Giuliani's lead over Mr. Thompson was 9 points in... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 1 Aug 2007 at 3:04 PM Excerpt: On Monday, the Fred Thompson campaign defended its lackluster June fundraising in part by noting that: "One month ago, the DNC attacked Thompson (in the Politico) for potentially raising more money than he'd need for the exploratory period." The only... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 1 Aug 2007 at 12:23 PM Excerpt: The Internet's great for this stuff... Here's the Washington Post's blog with a few more interesting tidbits from the Thompson filing: * Roughly half of Fred Thompson's cash came from Tennessee. * McCain finance chairman Fred Malek's wife, Marlene, is... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 1 Aug 2007 at 9:08 AM Excerpt: Byron York notes some more Thompson donors (I've bolded the ones I haven't mentioned yet): A few names you might know from the newly-released list of Fred Thompson's early donors include some people who are working with the campaign: pollster John... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 5:40 PM Excerpt: I've been spending a little time going over Fred Thompson's first campaign filing. The interesting names so far, after the jump...Eugene Volokh prominent UCLA law professor and libertarian blogger donated $750 Kirby Wilbur prominent conservative... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 2:45 PM Excerpt: This comes in via the comments, from Yoda: "When polls show Romney ahead in the early states, you say they don't mean anything - it's February 5th that counts. Now when Rudy is ahead, it's meaningful?" No. February 5 (and Florida on January 29) will... [continue] ARG: Giuliani Up in All Three Early States By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 1:36 PM Excerpt: American Research Group has a new set of polls on IA, NH, and SC. On the Republican side, one headline is clear: Rudy Giuliani is up in all three states. As is another: The bottom has fallen out of John McCain's support in New Hampshire and South... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Mitt Can't Win, Says Mitt-ite By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 12:29 PM Excerpt: In this clip, Mitt Romney's New Hampshire state co-chair, Donna Sytek, expresses serious misgivings about Mr. Romney's ability to win the general election:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 10:19 AM Excerpt: The Sienna College Poll out of New York today has some relatively unsurprising findings in the primaries: GOP Giuliani: 40% McCain: 13% Thompson: 11% Gingrich: 9% Romney: 7% Dem Clinton: 48% Obama: 14% Gore: 10% Edwards: 7% In the general election,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 6:12 PM Excerpt: I may characterize Fred Thompson's $3 million haul for June as "not great." But let me qualify that in one important way: * "Not great" doesn't = "very bad." $3 million is a decent number, on track roughly with how John McCain did each month of the last... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 5:27 PM Excerpt: Below the fold is a memo sent out by Fred Thompson's online outreach guy, Jon Henke, responding to the news of Mr. Thompson's below-expectations $3 million fundraising haul for June... Judging the rapid response: The Politico story hit at 12:44 p.m.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 4:44 PM Excerpt: So, Fred Thompson's first month of fundraising is in per Politico and the results aren't great: $3 million plus. According to a Thompson email release, the non-campaign's burn rate is "below 20% - far below the other candidates." ("Other candidates"?... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Cruise Edition By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 4:35 PM Excerpt: From National Review, which is having its National Review cruise right now: Informal NR Cruise 2008 Straw Poll [Rich Lowry] A very informal show of hands of a couple of hundred NR cruisers had Rudy in the lead pretty solidly, then Romney and Thompson... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 12:59 PM Excerpt: ...Vanity Fair is gonna hit hard, according to this summary from Page Six: JUDITH Giuliani is an opportunistic, puppy-killing homewrecker who has a full-time hairstylist and needs an extra seat on planes for "Baby Louis," her Louis Vuitton handbag - at... [continue] McCain Death Watch: USA Today Edition By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 12:36 PM Excerpt: USA Today has some fun with the lede of their McCain story: COLUMBIA, S.C. No longer burdened by lots of campaign cash and staff, Sen. John McCain is stumping for votes the old-fashioned way, trying to remind voters of the maverick personality that... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 5:39 PM Excerpt: John McCain's latest book is available on Amazon: "Hard Call: Great Decisions and the Extraordinary People Who Made Them." I found "Faith of My Fathers," his war memoir, gripping reading. Haven't checked out any of his other books.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 4:30 PM Excerpt: The Republican presidential candidates could hardly do anything stupider than skipping the CNN YouTube debate after the Democrats stepped up to the plate earlier this week. Only John McCain and Ron Paul brothers in desperation have signed up so far.... [continue] Romney: 'a progressive-on-social-issues governor of Massachusetts' By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 4:10 PM Excerpt: I've thus far declined to set up a Mitt Romney death watch for one very serious reason: I think he's already dead ... or, rather, was hardly ever alive. He has pumped millions of dollars into Iowa and New Hampshire to buy some inflated numbers. But those... [continue] 'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 10:42 AM Excerpt: It's been a long time since we've had a "death watch" death watch item (where we put our McCain Death Watch on death watch due to positive news for John McCain). But the latest Diego/Hotline Poll seems as good an occasion as any. The short version is... [continue] Fred Thompson: 'we're going to take that conversation to a different level' By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 4:48 PM Excerpt: I just received the following letter (available as a Web page here) in my inbox from Fred Thompson: In the past few months, I've traveled the country talking and listening to folks. I've been discussing where I see America going, about what we need to... [continue] Fred Siegel: The Contentions Interview By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 3:10 PM Excerpt: This is an interview done by Commentary's blog, Contentions, with noted New York City historian Fred Siegel: It's relevant to the 2008, inasmuch as it touches on Rudy Giuliani's record and that of Michael Bloomberg. There are a number of sections... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Death Cat Edition By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 2:43 PM Excerpt: You've heard of the cat, Oscar, that can predict when nursing home patients will die? Well, he's been sighted at McCain headquarters.... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Fred and the Truthers By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 1:28 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson is heckled by 9/11-truthers:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 12:20 PM Excerpt: May God strike me dead for citing an Ann Coulter column but I'm actually citing it (really, truly) for an insightful point she's made, not for her normal, racist, faux-provocativeness (though, there's plenty of that in there, too). I didn't get into... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Media Team Edition By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 7:16 PM Excerpt: According to the Wall Street Journal: Sen. John McCain's well-known media team has resigned, an indication that his campaign shake-up is continuing to backfire and imperiling the Arizona Republican's presidential candidacy. Political ad-makers Russ... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 12:15 PM Excerpt: So, we have another defection from the Thompson campaign, this one by J.T. Mastranadi, who was hired a week and a half ago to do opposition research. According to Marc Anbinder's report, Mr. Mastrandi was fed up with the lack of structure in the... [continue] New York Doesn't Like Fred Thompson By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 5:47 PM Excerpt: [Again, that's New York magazine, not New York City.] So, about that Fred Thompson profile in New York magazine (link is here)... While it's certainly not flattering, I don't think it's terribly damaging. It's not nice to Fred, and is even a little... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 3:58 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson's campaign is, reportedly, having a shakeup before it's even officially launched. According to AP: Republican presidential hopeful Fred Thompson is replacing his acting campaign manager with former senator and energy secretary Spencer... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 3:29 PM Excerpt: That's New York the magazine, not New York the city. Don't miss its profile of Fred Thompson. I'm still plowing my way through it (OK, it's not that long, but I'm in the middle). So, I'll be back with thoughts later. A quick look at Thompson-friendly... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 10:39 AM Excerpt: John McCain held a blogger conference call today to my knowledge, the first since his campaign fell apart. Like Soren Dayton, I missed the very beginning of the call. There wasn't much remarkable, but here were the highlights: * Mr. McCain attacked... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Florida Edition By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 2:11 PM Excerpt: Senator McCain's fortunes continue to tumble in the likely to be very important Florida primary, scheduled for January 29. Look at this numbers from the latest Quinnipiac Florida poll: Giuliani: 30% Thompson: 18% McCain: 10% Romney: 9% If you look at... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Back in Black By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 1:45 PM Excerpt: What a time to have left you all! ... especially McCain Death Watch fans. Of course, in the time I was gone, the McCain Death Watch really got out of hand. It's now just called "the news." Regardless, we'll keep watching.... [continue] Interior West: Patience, Grasshopper By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 1:38 PM Excerpt: The Denver Post laments that the interior West has yet to become a battleground in the 2008 election. As the originator of all this interior West talk, let me say a few short words in its defense... It has nothing to do with the primaries. The interior... [continue] Gingrich to Bush: Shut Up on Iraq By Russell Berman | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 12:48 PM Excerpt: Newt Gingrich is offering President Bush some interesting advice about winning support for the Iraq war: The president, he says, should stop talking about it. "Simply be quiet, say nothing" is what the former Republican leader is urging. Mr. Bush instead... [continue] By Josh Gerstein | Tue, 17 Jul 2007 at 2:09 AM Excerpt: Attending Senator McCain's campaign event in Silicon Valley yesterday, I felt a bit like a doctor approaching a sick patient. I wondered: is it just a bad cold, or a terminal illness? I walked away feeling the patient is a bit sicker than he's letting... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Ron Paul Edition By Ryan Sager | Fri, 6 Jul 2007 at 4:10 PM Excerpt: Via Reason's David Weigel, we learn that John McCain is behind Ron Paul in the money race. OK, not in money raised but in cash on hand. Mr. McCain has $2 million. Mr. Paul has $2.4 million. ABC also writes it up here. This puts Mr. Paul a distant,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 2:31 PM Excerpt: Soren Dayton nails it in this post on Christian Right leaders getting ready to line up behind Fred Thompson and not Mitt Romney. The most significant data point is that James Dobson greenlit this attack on Mr. Romney (a radio segment titled:... [continue] NC: Giuliani and Thompson Tied By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 12:32 PM Excerpt: A new poll out of North Carolina has Rudy Giuliani tied with Fred Thompson in the GOP primary. Previous polls have had Mr. Giuliani in the lead but they didn't include Mr. Thompson. Civitas Institute poll conducted by Tel Opinion Research (R). June... [continue] Run on Thompson Watergate Memoir By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 12:14 PM Excerpt: Over at Amazon.com, there seems to be a bit of a run on Fred Thompson's Watergate memoir, "At That Point in Time." The price for used copies (the only kind available) is more than $184. Perhaps rival campaigns or reporters are hoping more stories like... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 10:34 AM Excerpt: According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Rudy Giuliani still leads in New Jersey but a Mike Bloomberg independent candidacy would throw the state to a tie. Yet more evidence that Mr. Bloomberg could serve as a spoiler for Republicans in 2008, not... [continue] Cash Chase: Rudy Takes the Lead By Ryan Sager | Tue, 3 Jul 2007 at 3:36 PM Excerpt: The numbers are in, and Rudy Giuliani has taken the lead in the money race for 2008 on the GOP side: McCain: $11 million Romney: $14 million Giuliani: $17 million Mitt Romney loaned himself $6.5 million on top of his fundraising, putting him at $20.5... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Public Financing Edition By Ryan Sager | Tue, 3 Jul 2007 at 12:20 PM Excerpt: As I mention in my column this morning, if John McCain takes public matching funds in the primary, he'll be subject to very low state-by-state spending limits. The full breakdown of those limits from the FEC is here. (These are estimates based on 2007... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 3 Jul 2007 at 12:15 PM Excerpt: Here are ARG's most recent polls for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina: Iowa: Romney: 25% Giuliani: 18% Thompson: 14% McCain: 13% New Hampshire: Romney: 27% McCain: 21% Giuliani: 19% Thompson: 10 South Carolina: McCain: 23% Giuliani: 22%... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Transcript Edition By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 5:33 PM Excerpt: The McCain campaign has released the following transcript of the conference call earlier today: ARLINGTON, VA - U.S. Senator John McCain's presidential campaign released the following transcript of today's press conference call regarding 2nd quarter... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 3:21 PM Excerpt: ... Dogs Against Romney. The blog. (For those just joining us... background here.)... [continue] McCain Death Watch: 'Sixth Sense' Edition By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 2:42 PM Excerpt: Fresh off the McCain 2nd quarter fundraising conference call, here are a few thoughts: * I may have to end this death watch soon. Why? Figure it out... It's not much of a mystery. (PS: Have you ever noticed how much McClane sounds like McCain?) * The... [continue] McCain Watch: Watch This Space By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 1:28 PM Excerpt: Watch this space, as we'll be coming to you live with the details of today's 2 p.m. McCain conference call, where we should find out his 2nd quarter fundraising total and hear a bit about these staff trims... 2:00: Pre-call, I hear: The campaign had a... [continue] 'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch: Still in Second Edition By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 1:19 PM Excerpt: Keeping with the McCain Monday theme here today, I wanted to throw out a couple of national polls from the last few days showing John McCain still in second place or at least tied with Fred Thompson for the honor: Fox: Giuliani: 29% McCain: 17%... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Downsizing Edition By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 12:26 PM Excerpt: We'll see just how bad the fundraising situation is at 2:00. But, for now, we have a dispatch from the AP reporting a major McCain campaign downsizing: John McCain's campaign, trailing top Republican rivals in money and polls, is undergoing a... [continue] McCain Death Watch: 2nd Quarter Anticipation Edition By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 12:17 PM Excerpt: John McCain's campaign is announcing his 2nd quarter results at 2:00: MEDIA ADVISORY Senator McCain's Campaign To Announce 2nd Quarter Fundraising Numbers For Immediate Release Contact: Press Office Monday, July 2, 2007 703-XXX-XXXX ARLINGTON, VA - U.S... [continue] McCain Appeal: We're Short of 2nd Quarter Goal By Ryan Sager | Fri, 29 Jun 2007 at 4:34 PM Excerpt: John McCain's campaign has just sent out another one of its desperate-sounding fundraising appeals, this one claiming that the campaign is still short of its second-quarter fundraising goals on the day before the quarter will officially close: I know... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 29 Jun 2007 at 12:44 PM Excerpt: Has Fred Thompson taken his first shot at Rudy Giuliani?: Former GOP Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, speaking at a GOP gathering in South Carolina today, hit his usual core issues, tax cuts, and terrorism -- but also took an apparent shot at GOP... [continue] McCain Death Watch: 'I'm Not Dead' Edition By Ryan Sager | Fri, 29 Jun 2007 at 11:55 AM Excerpt: It's not good to be getting the question: WASHINGTON (AP) Sen. John McCain dismissed the notion Thursday that he might drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination because he is lagging in fundraising and trailing in polls. "That's... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 29 Jun 2007 at 12:34 AM Excerpt: The latest Fox News poll has Rudy Giuliani still way out ahead. Fred Thompson is two points behind John McCain. Mitt Romney is tied for fourth with Newt Gingrich: Giuliani: 30% McCain: 17% Thompson: 15% Gingrich: 8% Romney: 8% Rudy's number is 7 points... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Crush on Giuliani By Ryan Sager | Thu, 28 Jun 2007 at 12:33 PM Excerpt: Well, we all knew the Crush on Obama parodies were coming:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 28 Jun 2007 at 10:35 AM Excerpt: The Suffolk University poll, of 200 likely Republican primary voters, has this breakdown: Romney: 26% Giuliani: 22% McCain: 13% Thompson: 13% The poll also found that a Mike Bloomberg run for president would help the Democrats: "Bloomberg recorded 6... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 28 Jun 2007 at 10:26 AM Excerpt: I'm no dog lover (I've thought of running for mayor on a "Dog Free NYC" platform), but some people like the disgusting little beasts. For any of those people considering voting for Mitt Romney, read this.... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Thompson and Abortion By Ryan Sager | Wed, 27 Jun 2007 at 2:59 PM Excerpt: The anonymous prochoicefred takes a shot at Fred Thompson's rhetorical record on abortion:... [continue] McCain Death Watch: Quinnipiac Edition By Ryan Sager | Wed, 27 Jun 2007 at 11:08 AM Excerpt: Quinnipiac has released the latest version of its swing-state poll, covering Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. While the results are interesting, here's what I find more interesting: They've started adding a category to the GOP primary results labeled,... [continue] 'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch By Ryan Sager | Wed, 27 Jun 2007 at 11:01 AM Excerpt: As a counterpoint to our "McCain Death Watch," I'll be running a "'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch," with counter-indicators showing John McCain's potential to survive. First up, this from Gallup's review of June polling: "Support for McCain has... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 27 Jun 2007 at 10:52 AM Excerpt: The latest Strategic Vision poll out of Georgia has Fred Thompson taking the lead away from Rudy Giuliani: Thompson: 25% Giuliani: 20% McCain: 11% Gingrich: 7% Romney: 6% Huckabee: 5% Back in April, in the same poll, Mr. Giuliani led Mr. McCain... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Thompson in Tennessee By Ryan Sager | Tue, 26 Jun 2007 at 11:02 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson arrives at his soon-to-be national headquarters in Nashville, Tennessee:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 26 Jun 2007 at 2:19 PM Excerpt: California, New York, and Iowa (leaders: Giuliani, Giuliani, Romney respectively)... California (San Jose State University survey. June 18-22, 2007. N=1,000 adults statewide): Giuliani: 25% Thompson: 16% McCain: 14% Romney: 5% New York (Siena... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 26 Jun 2007 at 9:52 AM Excerpt: In 2003, Mitt Romney endorsed Rocky Anderson for mayor of Salt Lake City. Now, Mr. Anderson is unloading on Mr. Romney. In New York City to call for President Bush's impeachment and talking to a left-wing radio show, he says: "This is not Mitt Romney.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 26 Jun 2007 at 9:28 AM Excerpt: Rasmussen has new numbers from its robo poll (change from last week in parentheses): Thompson: 27% (-1) Giuliani: 23% (-4) Romney: 12% (+2) McCain: 11% (+1) This is in rather stark contract to the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out yesterday,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 26 Jun 2007 at 12:25 AM Excerpt: Fred Thompson has Google ads showing up next to stories about John McCain's tanked poll numbers. That just ain't right... Screen-cap below the fold. UPDATE: The Thompson campaign clarifies that it is only placing next to John McCain's name not... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 25 Jun 2007 at 11:05 PM Excerpt: I got the same result as Marc Ambinder all day: no response from the Thompson camp on the Wisconsin Right to Life decision. Mr. Thompson said in his interview with Sean Hannity, after the last GOP debate, that he was now against the ad ban (9:24) ... [continue] Giuliani Stakes Out New Terrain on Campaign-Finance By Ryan Sager | Mon, 25 Jun 2007 at 5:50 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani has weighed in on the Wisconsin Right to Life decision (see our response roundup, still being updated, here): "I support this Supreme Court decision, which is a welcome victory for free speech and personal liberty. "The ruling protects... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 25 Jun 2007 at 12:21 PM Excerpt: It's the prediction of this blog that John McCain will not make it so far as the first primary in the 2008 Republican primary, due to a number of factors: 1) He leads in no national poll, and, in fact, has fallen to at least third place with fourth... [continue] More on WRTL: Reaction Roundup By Ryan Sager | Mon, 25 Jun 2007 at 11:15 AM Excerpt: The decision is here (PDF). Republican and Democratic candidates' reactions and others as they come in, below the fold: Mitt Romney: Boston, MA Today, Governor Mitt Romney issued the following statement on the United States Supreme Court decision... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 24 Jun 2007 at 2:04 PM Excerpt: For those of you interested... The Tennessean has a breakdown of Fred Thompson's campaign staff. Note that it's not, so far at least, particularly Tennessee heavy. UPDATE: Also, see TNR's debate on whether Fred can make it as a real presidential... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 22 Jun 2007 at 5:36 PM Excerpt: The Giuliani campaign has put out another one of its periodic strategy memos, from strategy director Brent Seaborn. The bullet points: * "We have seen a 4th candidate [Fred Thompson] enter the 'top-tier' of the Republican primary race." * "We will... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 22 Jun 2007 at 5:28 PM Excerpt: Fred is headed to New Hampshire and South Carolina next week. It's quite a schedule for a guy not running for anything. PS: There's a joke in this picture relating to Rudy and Fred.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 22 Jun 2007 at 11:44 AM Excerpt: I've got to disagree with this Bruce Reed column, which argues that a Bloomberg candidacy (or even non-candidacy) hurts Rudy Giuliani by denying him headlines and reminding Republican voters how liberal and unappealing New Yorkers are. First off, it's... [continue] By Russell Berman | Thu, 21 Jun 2007 at 4:18 PM Excerpt: The ever-quotable dean of the New York congressional delegation, Rep. Charles Rangel of Harlem, had this to say at the Capitol this afternoon when I asked for his reaction to Mayor Bloomberg's decision to leave the GOP, Hizzoner's second party switch of... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 21 Jun 2007 at 4:15 PM Excerpt: President Bush hits a new low.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 21 Jun 2007 at 3:42 PM Excerpt: Just adding on to my column from this morning... The Wall Street Journal treads on similar ground, discussing the general vacuousness of a campaign based on "non-partisanship." This is the key sentence: "Pragmatism is not the sole province of the Mike... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 21 Jun 2007 at 3:20 PM Excerpt: ...or should I say, lack thereof. The Pew survey linked above shows that while Mayor Bloomberg has rather good name recognition 65%, which is better than Mitt Romney (62%), Joe Biden (58%), Fred Thompson (51%), or Bill Richardson (48%) he's still... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 21 Jun 2007 at 12:50 PM Excerpt: A new Strategic Vision poll out today has Fred Thompson pulling up close to Rudy Giuliani: Rudy Giuliani: 30% Fred Thompson: 24% John McCain: 11% Mitt Romney: 8% Newt Gingrich: 4% This is important because... Mr. Giuliani has to make a strong showing... [continue] Vote in the Pajamas Media Straw Poll By Ryan Sager | Thu, 21 Jun 2007 at 10:08 AM Excerpt: We're going to try this ... Click below to vote in the Pajamas Media straw poll (hey, it's as meaningful as Iowa!). You can also click through to see for whom LatestPolitics.com readers are voting:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 20 Jun 2007 at 4:19 PM Excerpt: Ramesh makes an excellent point about Rudy and immigration. (It's first-name day here at LP!) Basically, he (Rudy) has managed to be adamantly opposed to the McCain-Kennedy-Bush-Dobbs (no, sorry, not Dobbs) immigration bill, without drawing attention to... [continue] Rudy's New South Carolina Chair By Ryan Sager | Wed, 20 Jun 2007 at 3:00 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani has selected Barry Wynn as his new South Carolina campaign chair. Mr. Wynn, formerly the chairman of the state Republican Party, was already serving as Mr. Giuliani's finance co-chairman. "Barry has been a driving force behind our success... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 20 Jun 2007 at 1:01 PM Excerpt: "I'm not sure which is worse for Rudy - having the support of a cocaine distributor or an endorsement of somebody in the White House!" -- Yoda... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 20 Jun 2007 at 11:00 AM Excerpt: So, we have a new Mason-Dixon poll out of Iowa, of likely caucus-goers. Good news for Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, bad new for Rudy Giuliani and John McCain: Mitt Romney 25% Fred Thompson 17% Rudy Giuliani 15% Mike Huckabee 7% John McCain 6% But,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 20 Jun 2007 at 12:24 AM Excerpt: Don't miss the Sun's coverage this morning of Michael Bloomberg ditching the GOP. I don't have much to add, except to say that if he thinks he can run for president and win as an Independent he's delusional. As to how it would affect the general... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 20 Jun 2007 at 12:13 AM Excerpt: So, now Fred Thompson is getting the almost-thumbs-up from the former senator from Virginia, George "Macaca" Allen. It's sort of like the former quarterback of the high school football team, having lost his legs in a tragic drunk-driving accident the... [continue] Rough (and Not So Rough) Day for Giuliani By Ryan Sager | Wed, 20 Jun 2007 at 12:02 AM Excerpt: A new poll has Fred Thompson edging him out for first place in the Republican primary. (Though, maybe this will lead to Mr. Thompson finally receiving some actual skepticism from voters and pundits.) His Iowa campaign head leaves for a White House gig.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 19 Jun 2007 at 3:24 PM Excerpt: Newt Gingrich (the guy not running for president) has a new ad out against the McCain-Bush-Kennedy immigration bill: It's worth noting just how misleading this ad is: 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers were in America legally on visas. Punishing Mexican... [continue] Thompson, Woodward, and Watergate By Ryan Sager | Tue, 19 Jun 2007 at 2:30 PM Excerpt: Further on that Bob Woodward attack on Fred Thompson yesterday, I should have noted that in his interview with Jay Leno recently, Mr. Thompson was explicit about not taking credit for uncovering the fact that Nixon has taped Oval Office conversations:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 19 Jun 2007 at 2:07 PM Excerpt: Hillary spoofs the Sopranos. (Pretty funny, though they could have shot a more dead-on shot-for-shot parody and it would have been funnier. The carrot sticks for Bill are a nice touch, though.)... [continue] Giuliani and the Iraq Study Group By Ryan Sager | Tue, 19 Jun 2007 at 1:35 PM Excerpt: Ouch. This is a damaging one for Rudy Giuliani: He apparently quit the Iraq Study Group last spring in favor of giving millions of dollars worth of speeches trading on his status as the "hero of 9/11." Now, presidential candidates rarely have... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 19 Jun 2007 at 12:57 AM Excerpt: With how well Fred Thompson is doing in the polls these days, you can expect lots of people to come out of the woodwork to weigh in with their attacks or accolades. Yesterday, Bob Woodward took a shot in a Washington Post online chat at Mr. Thompson's... [continue] Forbes's Creepiest Candidates: In Pictures By Ryan Sager | Mon, 18 Jun 2007 at 3:03 PM Excerpt: Forbes polled Americans on which candidates are "creepiest." It's a long, hot summer folks... Here are the results in a little photo essay (great pictures an especially funny one of Rudy Giuliani). Newt Gingrich comes in first, followed by Hillary... [continue] USA Today/Gallup: Thompson Surges, Romney Drops By Ryan Sager | Mon, 18 Jun 2007 at 9:20 AM Excerpt: Another day, another poll... Today, it's USA Today/Gallup with a poll out showing Fred Thompson gaining, to the particular detriment of Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney: June 1-3 June 11-14 % change Giuliani 32% 28% -4 Thompson ... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 18 Jun 2007 at 12:33 AM Excerpt: Once upon a time, John McCain was considered the "frontrunner" for the GOP nomination. Now, this was always a fraud, as Rudy Giuliani consistently beat the Arizona senator in the polls even a year ago, when most people didn't believe he would run (I... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 15 Jun 2007 at 3:25 PM Excerpt: Over at the Atlantic, Marc Anbinder updates us on the situation in Jersey... They have now officially made the state "winner-takes-all," meaning essentially that all of its delegates (all 52 of them) now belong to Rudy Giuliani. The latest poll in... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 15 Jun 2007 at 10:26 AM Excerpt: The McCain campaign is pushing a poll today showing John McCain in the lead among Republicans in Texas. The rundown is: McCain: 27% Giuliani: 23% Thompson: 11% Romney: 6% It's plausible, especially if Hispanics in the state support Mr. McCain's... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Thompson National Right to Life Address By Ryan Sager | Fri, 15 Jun 2007 at 9:20 AM Excerpt: By way of the Brody File, we have today a videotaped message from Fred Thompson to the National Right to Life conference tonight in Kansas City, Missouri. This also marks, to my recollection, the first hauling out of the wife in kids in service of the... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Grassfire By Ryan Sager | Thu, 14 Jun 2007 at 5:40 PM Excerpt: The immigration bill may be dead, but this is a heck of a commercial: Surprisingly, this ad is supposed to make people support the fence.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 14 Jun 2007 at 2:39 PM Excerpt: John McCain's campaign is setting up an anti-Mitt Romney Web site, with the somewhat unwieldy name www.mittvsfact.com. It's a bit sad that the guy who once thought he'd simply walk to the nomination is now in a mud-wrestling match with a barely... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 14 Jun 2007 at 2:11 PM Excerpt: The Massachusetts Legislature today defeats a proposed constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. This means the Massachusetts same-sex-marriage decision is essentially entrenched in the law. Opponents trying to get it overturned won't have another chance... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 14 Jun 2007 at 12:25 PM Excerpt: Here's yet another questionnaire (PDF) dug up on Fred Thompson, regarding his abortion position. Filled out around 1996 (the exact date seems to be unknown) for Tennesseans for Choice, it paints the former Tennessee senator as anything but a strict... [continue] NBC/WSJ Poll: Giuliani Leads, Thompson in Second By Ryan Sager | Thu, 14 Jun 2007 at 9:32 AM Excerpt: Here's the new NBC/WSJ poll: Giuliani: 29% Thompson: 20% McCain: 14% Romney: 14% The poll also shows presidential and congressional approval plummeting. Possibly because of Iraq (OK, almost certainly because of Iraq), this all seems to be benefiting... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 13 Jun 2007 at 6:10 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson's imwithfred.com site now has a blog, the Fred File. So far, it's just retreads of the pieces he's been writing for various outlets on taxes, patriotism, etc. But it's a place to check back. (Disappointingly, you have to be a "friend of... [continue] McCain Fundraiser: Thompson Trying to Poach By Ryan Sager | Wed, 13 Jun 2007 at 1:25 PM Excerpt: A top donor and fundraiser for the McCain campaign, speaking on condition of anonymity, tells LatestPolitics.com that the Fred Thompson proto-campaign organization is busy calling McCain donors and pitching the former Tennessee senator as the consensus... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 13 Jun 2007 at 11:40 AM Excerpt: The FEC has unveiled a neat new little tool that allows you to search candidates' donations on a map. Of course, in this, they're months behind the New York Times. Score another one for the free market.... [continue] Political Video of the Day: Thompson on Leno By Ryan Sager | Wed, 13 Jun 2007 at 10:13 AM Excerpt: Here's Fred Thompson on Leno last night: Asked if he would like the job of president, Mr. Thompson said: "I've never craved the job of president, but I want to do some things that only a president can do, so the answer is yes." Here's one, however,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 13 Jun 2007 at 9:46 AM Excerpt: The latest Quinnipiac poll is out, and it has some more realistic-looking numbers regarding Fred Thompson: May 3 June 13 % change Giuliani 27% 27% 0 McCain 19% 15% -4 Thompson 14% 15% +1 Romney 8% 10% +2 ... [continue] Al D'Amato Endorses Fred Thompson By Ryan Sager | Tue, 12 Jun 2007 at 8:08 PM Excerpt: Don't ask me why I was watching (you have to watch something when there's no "House" on), but on NY1's "Inside City Hall," Al D'Amato just endorsed Fred Thompson. It's not (I repeat not) a surprise that the former New York senator would chose to oppose... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 12 Jun 2007 at 4:54 PM Excerpt: Not good ol' Dick... Liz. From the Weekly Standard: FRED THOMPSON IS adding more big-name policy talent as his testing-the-waters committee continues to grow into a real presidential campaign. Among the new additions: Mark Esper, national security... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 12 Jun 2007 at 2:45 PM Excerpt: Can a group of dissident conservatives, calling itself the American Freedom Agenda, force the issue of civil liberties into the GOP primary and the general-election race? Probably not. But here's a write-up of them from the Boston Globe, nonetheless.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 12 Jun 2007 at 1:54 PM Excerpt: I should have pointed this one out over the weekend... In this piece, The Tennessean takes the most thorough look yet at Mr. Thompson's views on abortion. Suffice it to say, he's no pro-lifer's dream opposing Roe but also opposing a "human-life... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 12 Jun 2007 at 11:03 AM Excerpt: I hereby invoke the Great Law of Headline Question Marks... However, we do have our first poll showing Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson tied for first place in the GOP primary. That's on the one hand. On the other hand, it's a Rasmussen robo-poll. I... [continue] Giuliani's 'Twelve Commitments' By Ryan Sager | Tue, 12 Jun 2007 at 9:55 AM Excerpt: So, this morning, Rudy Giuliani has unveiled something he's calling his "Twelve Commitments" to the American people. While I'll give some thought to what they actually mean a bit later on, here they are: I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists'... [continue] LAT: Giuliani 27%, Thompson 21%, McCain 12%, Romney 10% By Ryan Sager | Mon, 11 Jun 2007 at 6:42 PM Excerpt: Here's that new LA Times poll (PDF). The results (from an expansive list of candidates): Giuliani: 27% Thompson: 21% McCain: 12% Romney: 10% And here's the LA Times write-up. Interestingly, when the field is narrowed, and respondents are asked to pick... [continue] LA Times Poll: McCain is No. 3 By Ryan Sager | Mon, 11 Jun 2007 at 3:30 PM Excerpt: The LA Times poll is coming out later today. Early word is that Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are Nos. 1 & 2, respectively. John McCain is a distant third, in a dead heat with "don't know." Mitt Romney, as usual, isn't doing so hot, either. And Mr.... [continue] Political Video of the Day: McCain and the Fence By Ryan Sager | Mon, 11 Jun 2007 at 10:02 AM Excerpt: John McCain is asked why we haven't built a border fence:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 10 Jun 2007 at 11:50 PM Excerpt: Not a great way to deflect concerns about one's flagging campaign: "That's what they said this time in 1999," McCain said, "and I'm sure they will say it again. I'm happy with where we are and I'm the one that has to, I think, judge where my campaign."... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 10 Jun 2007 at 3:28 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson on abortion (sounding, ultimately, pro-choice or, at the very least, against a federal abortion ban):... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 10 Jun 2007 at 12:56 AM Excerpt: George Will take a shall we say "skeptical"? look at Fred Thompson in the next Newsweek. Specifically, he compares Fred mania to "the Tulip mania gripped Holland in the 1630s." Still, we have yet another poll showing Mr. Thompson challenging John... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 8 Jun 2007 at 7:36 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson on "Kudlow & Company" talking about tort reform and LP columnist Jennifer Rubin commenting on his comments:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 8 Jun 2007 at 2:27 PM Excerpt: Contrary to my speculation yesterday, Sam Brownback is staying and playing in Iowa. He's polling at 3%, but we'll see how it goes (it is, after all, all organization you should have seen their turnout at CPAC). At least Mitt has someone to play with.... [continue] Forget Politics, Is Tony Soprano Going To Die? By Ryan Sager | Fri, 8 Jun 2007 at 11:59 AM Excerpt: When even Peggy Noonan has packed it in on the politics to write about "The Sopranos," I think it may be time to just give in... Is Tony going to die? Is Meadow? Is AJ? Is Paulie working for New York? And, of course, where's the Russian?... [continue] Fox Poll: Rudy Slips, Thompson Surges By Ryan Sager | Fri, 8 Jun 2007 at 9:11 AM Excerpt: The latest Fox News poll is out. The basic headline is that, as stated above, Rudy Giuliani slipped a tiny bit from May (John McCain, too), while Fred Thompson jumped 5 points (to 13% from 8%). Voters find Messrs. McCain and Giuliani the most... [continue] Thompson Web Fundraising Results: $352,323 in 48 Hours By Ryan Sager | Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 10:56 PM Excerpt: According to the Thompson campaign, these are the results of the first 48 hours since they launched imwithfred.com and announced it on "Hannity & Colmes" after the GOP debate: In 48 hours since the Web site launch (with no paid advertising, or... [continue] Former McCain Donor and Personal Lawyer Switches to Thompson By Ryan Sager | Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 8:46 PM Excerpt: I have it from two sources that the Washington Post is set to report that Fred Thompson has snagged at least one high-profile John McCain donor: John M. Dowd, once Mr. McCain's personal lawyer, including during the Keating Five scandal and when his wife... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 5:06 PM Excerpt: I wanted to draw your attention to our most recent LP Indices. We've updated with our first preliminary points for June. The basic rundown: Fred Thompson shooting up John McCain heading further down Rudy Giuliani bumping back up Romney holding basically... [continue] Brownback to Make Iowa Announcement (Drop Out?) By Ryan Sager | Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 4:47 PM Excerpt: Sam Brownback has put out the following release: U.S. Senator Sam Brownback will hold a press conference at noon on Friday at the Brownback for President Iowa Headquarters to announce his intentions for the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll. Given that Mr. Brownback... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 2:39 PM Excerpt: I haven't had a chance to watch it yet, but Fred Thompson was on Kudlow yesterday. Here's the video.... [continue] UPDATE: Thompson NOT Going to Israel By Ryan Sager | Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 2:28 PM Excerpt: Yesterday, I posted a link to a report in the Israeli press that Fred Thompson was headed over there for a visit. I'm now told by the non-campaign that Mr. Thompson is definitely not going to Israel. The confusion seems to have arisen because Mr.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 11:25 AM Excerpt: Just a quick note to alert you all to two new state polls (I'm on the road today, so posting will be a tad light). 1) Keystone poll in PA (PDF): It has Rudy Giuliani and John McCain tied at 29%, but it doesn't include Fred Thompson. This is wildly out... [continue] Q-Poll: Fred Thompson Nearly Triples Percentage in FL By Ryan Sager | Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 7:27 AM Excerpt: According to the latest Q-poll, released just this morning, Fred Thompson has surged among Florida Republicans on the news that he's officially "testing the waters" for a presidential run. Since the poll was last taken in April, Mr. Thompson has nearly... [continue] McCain Follows Rudy Out of Iowa Straw Poll By Ryan Sager | Wed, 6 Jun 2007 at 4:59 PM Excerpt: Explicitly following Rudy Giuliani's lead, John McCain will skip the Iowa straw poll in August. The press release from the campaign, and analysis, is below... From the McCain campaign: ARLINGTON, VA - Terry Nelson, Campaign Manager for John McCain 2008... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 6 Jun 2007 at 2:34 PM Excerpt: According to Israel Today, Fred Thompson is headed to Israel in coming days: Fred Thompson, US presidential hopeful and former star of the hit television series "Law & Order," is scheduled to make his first visit to Israel in the coming days. Thompson,... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 6 Jun 2007 at 2:28 PM Excerpt: Predictable, but quite disappointing (especially after a debate shout-out to New Hampshire's "Live Free or Die" slogan): Rudy Giuliani opposes medical marijuana. As reported by Reason's David Weigel: MURPHY [medical marijuana advocate]: You talked about... [continue] Rudy and Iowa: Instant Analysis By Ryan Sager | Wed, 6 Jun 2007 at 12:38 PM Excerpt: Rudy Giuliani's decision to skip the Iowa straw poll is almost certainly the right one. He has nothing to gain from it he's already the national frontrunner by a good margin and a lot to lose from it. Furthermore, his absence from the poll makes it... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 6 Jun 2007 at 12:33 PM Excerpt: The Romney campaign is first out of the gate with a shot at Rudy Giuliani for deciding to skip the Iowa straw poll, with this statement from spokeswoman Sarah Pompei: "We are going to continue the hard work of building our campaign organization in Iowa... [continue] Rudy NOT to Play in Iowa Straw Poll By Ryan Sager | Wed, 6 Jun 2007 at 12:04 PM Excerpt: Just announced on Rudy Giuliani conference call... Campaign strategist Mike DuHaime spoke first on the call: We are not going to be participating in the Iowa straw poll in august "in any financial way." Still, "We are 100% playing in Iowa" [referring to... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 10:49 PM Excerpt: I really don't mean to beat up on Fred Thompson so much right now (between this post and my column on his Hannity appearance), but have you noticed anything missing from his new imwithfred.com Web site? Such as: content. (Pointed out to me by columnist... [continue] Rudy Wins; Thompson Loses, Everyone Else Loses, Too By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 10:20 PM Excerpt: I said it at the end of my live-blogging post, and I'll say it again: Rudy Giuliani won that debate hands down. If you have any doubt, stop by the generally Rudy-skeptical Corner tonight. Whether it was Iraq, immigration, health care, or whatever, he... [continue] And Now, Thompson vs. Himself... By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 9:00 PM Excerpt: ... on Hannity & Colmes: (unless quotation marks are used, I'm paraphrasing) 9:00: Right up front, I've got to say (tuning straight from the debate to this interview) it looks incredibly lame to skip the debate and then try to carve out your own special... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 6:33 PM Excerpt: Watch this space for live-blogging of the GOP tonight at 7 p.m. ET on CNN. 7:03: Candidate introductions, and already some decent lines. "Thompson the candidate, not the actor." And Mike Huckabee: "I'm from a little town called Hope. You've probably... [continue] Fred Thompsin is No. 2, Part II By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 4:14 PM Excerpt: Is Fred Thompson No. 2? Well, now we have the second poll released just today that says "yes." After the jump, we reproduce a memo just sent out by McLaughlin & Associates (now-confirmed pollsters for the Thompson campaign though this poll was not... [continue] Gallup: Rudy Leads McCain by Only 13 Points By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 2:49 PM Excerpt: The McCain campaign today wishes people were paying less attention to Rasmussen (which puts their candidate in fourth place) and more attention to Gallup (which puts their candidate in second). Of course, that's a very distant second and sinking fast:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 1:39 PM Excerpt: The 10 official Republican candidates debate tonight in New Hampshire, at 7 p.m. ET, on CNN. Note 1) I'll be liveblogging. Note 2) In what looks like one big ol' campaign contribution from Rupert Murdoch to Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator... [continue] Thompson's Conservative Credentials By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 10:20 AM Excerpt: Despite his climb in the polls, Fred Thompson still has a lot to prove to conservative voters. Also, his public record will be getting increasing scrutiny. In that vein, Jennifer Rubin has a piece on this site today noting that Mr. Thompson does not... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 9:20 AM Excerpt: This morning, I thought I'd give a roundup of some of the polls coming in that point to a new shape of the race: Fred Thompson may well be No. 2. First up today is Rasmussen, which shows Rudy Giuliani down slightly and Mr. Thompson showing a strong... [continue] Giuliani Campaign Apologizes to Mitt Romney By Ryan Sager | Mon, 4 Jun 2007 at 6:04 PM Excerpt: A statement regarding the Mormon email sent by a Giuliani staffer, issued by senior advisor Tony Carbonetti: "This was a regrettable mistake and is not acceptable. We extend our sincere apologies to Governor Romney and reaffirm our commitment to running... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 4 Jun 2007 at 5:13 PM Excerpt: I don't mean to tempt the Great Law of Headline Question Marks ... I really don't know. But a couple of polls out today point to a Fred Thompson "entering the race"-type surge. One poll, by Public Policy Polling (ALERT, DANGER: THIS IS ROBO-POLLING),... [continue] Social Conservative Love for Fred Watch, Part I By Ryan Sager | Mon, 4 Jun 2007 at 4:49 PM Excerpt: I already reported Gary Bauer's very friendly remarks regarding a Fred Thompson candidacy. Now, social conservative Paul Weyrich, is laying it on comparing Mr. Thompson to Ronald Reagan at some length, concluding thusly: Is Fred Thompson the second... [continue] Giuliani Campaign Hits the 'Mormon Issue' By Ryan Sager | Mon, 4 Jun 2007 at 1:56 PM Excerpt: So far, the opposing Republican presidential campaigns have by-and-large refrained from attacking Mitt Romney on what's been called "the Mormon issue." Specifically, the issue is that many see Mr. Romney's Mormon faith as a potential stumbling block in... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 4 Jun 2007 at 9:37 AM Excerpt: John McCain, reeling from criticism of the immigration bill and dropping in the polls, will deliver the following address at 10 a.m. to the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce: AS PREPARED FOR DELIVERY "Thank you for this opportunity to share with you a... [continue] ABC News/Washington Post: Rudy Leads by 13 By Ryan Sager | Mon, 4 Jun 2007 at 12:45 AM Excerpt: The results of the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll (with change from April in parens): Giuliani: 32% (-1) McCain: 19% (-2) Thompson: 11% (+2) Romney: 9 (0) The poll also gives us some insight into how Fred Thompson is changing the race... When the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 4 Jun 2007 at 12:27 AM Excerpt: The only Republican campaign I've seen respond to the Democratic debate so far at least in an official statement has been the Giuliani campaign. Here it is: Below is a statement from Giuliani Communications Director Katie Levinson regarding... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Sun, 3 Jun 2007 at 11:57 AM Excerpt: The Washington Post this morning offers this report on Fred Thompson's speech in Virginia last night, his first since it came out that he was setting up a testing the waters committee: Actor and former senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee rallied a... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 1 Jun 2007 at 6:02 PM Excerpt: Fred Senate ad from 1994: A Republican Congress and a Republican president later, and Washington still needs taking back? This is, after all, the same message Mr. Thompson is pushing on the stump now. Perhaps there's something timelessly vapid about... [continue] More Polling Ahead of the Weekend By Ryan Sager | Fri, 1 Jun 2007 at 5:49 PM Excerpt: According to the Hotline, a new Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll of GOP registered voters nationwide has the following results: Giuliani: 28% Thompson: 19% Romney: 17% McCain: 16% You hadn't heard the results of a new poll in about an hour? Your... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 1 Jun 2007 at 2:54 PM Excerpt: Patrick Ruffini, who was running Rudy Giuliani's Internet operation, has quit the campaign, the Politico's Jonathan Martin reports this morning. Mr. Ruffini says he still supports Mr. Giuliani for president. While it seems Mr. Ruffini left on fine... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 1 Jun 2007 at 10:33 AM Excerpt: A new poll out of South Carolina, the Winthrop University/ETV poll, puts Rudy Giuliani in the lead in South Carolina with 19%. John McCain comes in second with 14%. Mitt Romney is in third with 12%. Fred Thompson is in fourth with 6%. (undecided, though,... [continue] Quinnipiac PA Poll: Giuliani Holds, McCain Drops, Romney and Thompson Jump By Ryan Sager | Thu, 31 May 2007 at 5:17 PM Excerpt: Quinnipiac has a new poll out of Pennsylvania today. The results, in brief, for the GOP primary field with comparisons to how each candidate was doing in April: Giuliani 28% (down 1 point from 29%) McCain: 11% (down 6 points from 17%) Thompson: 10%... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 31 May 2007 at 1:03 PM Excerpt: Well, it is a fellow Tennessean, but still interesting: Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, was asked about a prospective Thompson candidacy Wednesday. "I certainly think Fred Thompson is the kind of person who ought to be stepping forward and making himself... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 31 May 2007 at 10:04 AM Excerpt: That Rudy endorsement today? It's Louis Freeh, Bill Clinton's FBI director. The endorsement is set to happen in Midtown at 2:00. This is a nice one to have potentially going into a general election against Hillary Clinton.... [continue] Fredapalooza: Who Wins? Who Loses? By Ryan Sager | Thu, 31 May 2007 at 9:15 AM Excerpt: Robert Novak weighs in this morning with a pretty enthusiastic column about Fred Thompson's entry into the race. (Perhaps making up for his savaging of Mr. Thompson back at the beginning of the month, after the former senator's lackluster speech in... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 11:28 PM Excerpt: In the interest of being your clearinghouse for all things Fred, here are two more items, for now: 1) Fred Thompson is leaving "Law & Order" (now we know he's serious.) Rumors are that Sam Waterston will be bumped up to DA for the show's 18th season.... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 6:42 PM Excerpt: OK, this is just wrong:... [continue] Prediction Market: Fred Up, Rudy Down By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 5:59 PM Excerpt: In the InTrade prediction market, Fred Thompson has jumped to $25.00, from $22.00. This is just shy of Rudy Giuliani's $25.60. It puts Mr. Thompson ahead of Mitt Romney, with a price of $23.00. John McCain is down at $17.60. Of course this is all just... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 5:45 PM Excerpt: Not if my old boss at the Cato Institute, David Boaz, has anything to say about it: Throughout his career, Giuliani has displayed an authoritarian streak that would be all the more problematic in a man who would assume executive powers vastly expanded by... [continue] Giuliani 'Key Endorsement' Tomorrow at NYC By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 5:00 PM Excerpt: The Giuliani campaign sends word that the former mayor will be in New York City tomorrow to receive a "key" endorsement at 2 p.m. Where does "key" fit in relation to "major" or "substantial"? Who knows. I'm guessing it's not this guy. If anyone has any... [continue] Thompson Announcement Could Come in Early July By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 1:58 PM Excerpt: Despite what the Politico has up at its Web site and the link Drudge has had up all day, my source in Thompson-land tells me that "There's no plan to announce on July 4" or even the week of July 4. There's certainly a rough plan, Mr. Thompson's advisor... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 9:40 AM Excerpt: Witness Mitt Romney's crystal clarity on immigration, from an interview last Friday with the Lakeland Ledger in Florida: Also, not the flip-flop both within the video above, and from this statement in the GOP debate, regarding whether illegal... [continue] Adding Thompson to the GOP Index By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 8:47 AM Excerpt: In light of recent events, now seems like the time to officially add Fred Thompson to our National GOP Index. As you can see (below, after the jump), Mr. Thompson enters the race slightly ahead of Mitt Romney at the national level. The candidates'... [continue] Dept. of Things We Already Knew By Ryan Sager | Wed, 30 May 2007 at 8:33 AM Excerpt: Fred Thompson is running. Politico's Mike Allen now adds that there is a soft plan for a July 4 announcement of an official campaign. It's unclear what this means precisely for the timetable he has set out. June 4 is the most likely day he will launch... [continue] LP Exclusive: Thompson to Announce 'Testing the Waters' Committee Early Next Week By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 7:06 PM Excerpt: LatestPolitics.com can now report, with confirmation from a Fred Thompson advisor, that the former Tennessee senator will announce early next week the formation of a presidential "testing-the-waters" committee. Jim Tracey, a state senator supporting Mr.... [continue] Thompson (Unofficial) Campaign Book Released: 'The Fred Factor' By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 3:02 PM Excerpt: John McCain's got "Faith of My Fathers," a campaign autobiography that came out back in 1999, when he made his first run for the White House. Mitt Romney's got "A Mormon in the White House?," a campaign hagiography by conservative talk-radio host and... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 2:21 PM Excerpt: New early state polls out from ARG: IA: McCain 25%, Giuliani 23%, Romney 16%, Thompson 6% NH: McCain 30%, Romney 23%, Giuliani 21%, Thompson 3% SC: McCain 32%, Giuliani 23%, Thompson 13%, Romney 10% ARG's polls are unfailingly kind to John McCain... [continue] Rudy Ambushed in New York City By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 2:01 PM Excerpt: Via Drudge... It seems some 9/11 conspiracy types ambushed Rudy Giuliani today as he tours around New York City in search of campaign cash. According to a dispatch from the Web site of WNBC: A radical group at a Bronx fundraiser confronted Rudolph... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 1:45 PM Excerpt: Further on Mitt, this David Bernstein profile is well worth checking out. The most remarkable thing, I think, is how successful Mr. Romney has been in convincing the press that his fundraising matters despite his lack of movement in national polls (so... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 1:11 PM Excerpt: No, not his political identity his difficulty keeping other people straight. Recently, you may recall, Mitt Romney confused Ralph Reed and Gary Bauer (not an easy thing to do by sight, even if their political views bear some resemblance to one and... [continue] Rasmussen: Giuliani, 25%; Romney, 16%; McCain, 15%; Thompson, 12% By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 8:43 AM Excerpt: According to the most recent Rasmussen national telephone survey, the immigration bill may be significantly shaking up the GOP primary field, hurting John McCain and helping Mitt Romney. The results: Giuliani: 25% Romney: 16% McCain: 15% Thompson: 12%... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 8:20 AM Excerpt: I haven't been following this Free Republic situation, but, apparently, Free Republic members sympathetic to the Rudy Giuliani candidacy have been banned from the site. The New York Observer reports: Over the past few weeks, chaos has reigned in the... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 8:14 AM Excerpt: Over the holiday weekend, I left up our video of Fred Thompson in Connecticut. I just wanted to report back that a whopping 5,600 of you watched the 25 minute speech on Motionbox. (For those of you who did, how'd you like that balloon that kept floating... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 8:08 AM Excerpt: Which candidate is most worried about Fred Thompson entering the GOP primary? Well, just head over to Google and enter Fred Thompson's name. Hey, what's Mitt Romney doing there at the top of the "sponsored links"? Looks like someone's been buying up... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 29 May 2007 at 7:50 AM Excerpt: Hope everyone had a good Memorial Day weekend. Things were relatively quiet in the world of politics, as average Americans attended picnics with their candidates of choice. So, here's one I missed from before the weekend: On Friday, Rudy Giuliani... [continue] Fred Thompson in CT: The Full Video By Ryan Sager | Fri, 25 May 2007 at 6:16 PM Excerpt: For the real Fred Heads out there, here's the full video of his speech in CT: You can watch a bigger version here. Here are some of the highlights of the video: Opener: "All right, let's get the announcement out of the way. Law & Order' will return... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 25 May 2007 at 4:28 PM Excerpt: Yes, those are the big three. But not very much public polling at this point narrows down the choices as such mostly voters are being asked to chose from a list of 10 or more candidates. I've been arguing that a narrowing of the field helps Rudy... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Fri, 25 May 2007 at 10:10 AM Excerpt: Ahead of Memorial Day, we have one of those great political polls: Who would you like to have a beer with? Who would you like to go fishing with? Who would you like to have hold your hair back while you pay the wages of a wild night on the town? Or, in... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 24 May 2007 at 10:29 PM Excerpt: In today's video, from Fred Thompson's speech tonight at the CT GOP dinner, the former Tennessee senator lays into the proposed immigration compromise:... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 24 May 2007 at 8:46 PM Excerpt: Fred Thompson is speaking tonight at the Connecticut GOP's Prescott Bush awards dinner. I'm in the hall right now as he's speaking. He's getting a tremendously warm reception. One notable thing so far: He says he's proud to have given money to Joe... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 24 May 2007 at 1:30 PM Excerpt: With its shiny new January 29 primary, Florida is in for a lot of attention this primary season. That said, here are three interrelated issues to think about as the Big Three in the GOP position themselves in the Sunshine State, especially in the wake of... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Thu, 24 May 2007 at 11:29 AM Excerpt: This morning we have a new national poll, though it's a small one: the Diageo/Hotline Poll, conducted by Financial Dynamics, May 16-20, 2007, 196 Republican primary voters nationwide. The results? After the jump... Rudy Giuliani shows up about where he... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 23 May 2007 at 11:47 PM Excerpt: Want some polling about who's going to win Washington in 2008? Now, what if I told you I was talking about Washington state? Thought so. Nonetheless, there's a new poll out of Washington (by Moore Information, May 21-22, 529 registered voters), and it... [continue] Giuliani Allies Strike Back at Jerry Hauer By Ryan Sager | Wed, 23 May 2007 at 5:05 PM Excerpt: Jerry Hauer, the former director of the Mayor's Office of Emergency Management in New York City, has been in a fight recently with Rudy Giuliani over who selected the site for the doomed emergency command center in World Trade Center 7. Mr. Hauer has... [continue] What's Softer Than a Cream Puff? By Ryan Sager | Wed, 23 May 2007 at 2:31 PM Excerpt: Would you like to read the least hard-hitting political profile of the year ... if not of all time? Well, NewsMax has it here!... [continue] California Dreaming (First, Probably Not Last, Use of This Headline) By Ryan Sager | Wed, 23 May 2007 at 1:57 PM Excerpt: The McCain camp is thrilled to be within three points of Rudy Giuliani in this latest ARG California poll: Giuliani 27%, McCain 24%, Thompson 12%, Romney 11%. The interesting thing about California, of course, is that its delegates will be allocated by... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Wed, 23 May 2007 at 11:37 AM Excerpt: Mitt Romney, the candidate with the most money (on the GOP side) and doing the most advertising, has a new ad out, titled "Tested, Proven": The script, from the campaign, is this: Script For "Tested, Proven" (TV:30): ANNOUNCER (Voice Over): "In the... [continue] Romney's Iowa Lead: Some Confirmation By Ryan Sager | Wed, 23 May 2007 at 11:29 AM Excerpt: While quite far from the recent Des Moines Register poll showing Mitt Romney on top with 30%, over John McCain's 18% and Rudy Giuliani's 17%, a Strategic Vision poll out today confirms Mr. Romney's lead in Iowa. In this poll, Mr. Romney leads with 20%,... [continue] More on Romney, Jeb, and Florida By Ryan Sager | Tue, 22 May 2007 at 6:00 PM Excerpt: Further to my post earlier about Mitt Romney risking alienating Jeb Bush (whose aides had been lining up behind Mr. Romney)... ABC News reports that Jeb Bush has told a Florida GOP activist he is "disappointed" with Mr. Romney for attacking the... [continue] Thompson Announcement in Early July? By Ryan Sager | Tue, 22 May 2007 at 5:49 PM Excerpt: Does this follow the Great Law of Headline Question Marks? I don't know. But it's more rumor than news, so I'm going with the old, reliable "?". Tennessee Politics Blog reports: Thompson to Announce in July, Collamore to Head Campaign -- TPB has learned... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 22 May 2007 at 5:48 PM Excerpt: Over at Reason's Hit & Run blog, David Weigel got Ron Paul to comment on the quote I took note of a little while ago that "By far the most powerful lobby in Washington of the bad sort is the Israeli government." I said that I considered this statement... [continue] Romney: Hurting Himself in Florida? By Ryan Sager | Tue, 22 May 2007 at 3:34 PM Excerpt: Soren Dayton asks an interesting question: Is Mitt Romney hurting himself with Jeb Bush (not to mention George W.) by opposing the immigration compromise? The quick and dirty answer would have to be yes. Jeb Bush is quite outspoken on immigration ... [continue] McCain Blogger Call Transcript By Ryan Sager | Tue, 22 May 2007 at 12:17 PM Excerpt: The McCain campaign has released a transcript of yesterday's blogger call. The big news out of it, of course, was Mr. McCain's attack on Mitt Romney (about which I wrote a column here). However, some might be interested in this exchange regarding Ron... [continue] Gallup: Giuliani's Complicated Lead By Ryan Sager | Tue, 22 May 2007 at 5:46 AM Excerpt: This Gallup poll is from mid-last week, but there are a few things about it worth mentioning. Key is that Rudy Giuliani's lead has narrowed ... and it hasn't. In this latest poll, Mr. Giuliani holds a 6-point lead, 29% to 23% over John McCain. That's... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Tue, 22 May 2007 at 12:03 AM Excerpt: So, sorry that I'm just getting to the Des Moines Register poll that has Mitt Romney way out ahead of the pack (at 30% to John McCain's 18% and Rudy Giuliani's 17%). While Mr. Romney's definitely been moving up in Iowa, this result is so far out-of-whack... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 21 May 2007 at 3:26 PM Excerpt: Here's the audio of that McCain-Romney slam. And, based on that audio, here's a bit more complete transcript of John McCain's statement: "I'm a little disappointed in Fred, cause, again, he had a very a different position not that long ago. But since... [continue] By Ryan Sager | Mon, 21 May 2007 at 2:22 PM Excerpt: The Romney campaign responds to John McCain's rather harsh attack on immigration: "Governor Romney has been very clear that he opposes this immigration agreement, which clearly falls short of the American public's expectations. It seems that certain... [continue] |
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