Latest Politics  

Latest Posts  |  Archive  | 

'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch

by Ryan Sager
Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 10:42 AM
updated Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 10:46 AM

Print

Send

RSS

Share:

It's been a long time since we've had a "death watch" death watch item (where we put our McCain Death Watch on death watch due to positive news for John McCain). But the latest Diego/Hotline Poll seems as good an occasion as any.

The short version is that Mr. McCain is in a three-way tie for first place with Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson:

Giuliani: 20%
Thompson: 19%
McCain: 17%
Romney: 8%

The worst news here is really for Mitt Romney. As the press release puts it: "Were it not for his consistently strong polling in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, it would be difficult to justify keeping him in the top tier of Republican candidates. However, he does remain the only other Republican candidate, besides Sam Brownback, whose numbers exceed the poll's margin of error."

There's a campaign slogan: "Mitt Romney. The only other Republican candidate, besides Sam Brownback, whose numbers exceed the poll's margin of error."

Worth noting, however, is that like the Quinnipiac poll I noted here a while ago, the Diego/Hotline Poll asks a "without McCain" question. And there's one very clear beneficiary of a McCain-less primary: Mr. Giuliani.

Those results (data here, PDF, Question 16a):

Giuliani: 36%
Thompson: 21%
Romney: 11%

The results of whom McCain voters choose as their second choice are pretty striking. Look at Question 17... McCain voters denied Mr McCain as a choice go:

Now, the sample for that is pretty small. But it matches up well with every other poll showing Mr. Giuliani as the strongest second choice candidate in the field — all the way back to the CPAC straw poll, where the former mayor won the combined second and first choice ballot.

Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis

Latest Politics Homepage