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Recent Editorials |
Early States vs. February 5by Ryan Sager
This comes in via the comments, from Yoda: "When polls show Romney ahead in the early states, you say they don't mean anything - it's February 5th that counts. Now when Rudy is ahead, it's meaningful?" No. February 5 (and Florida on January 29) will determine this primary — at least that's my analysis, and it has been for a while now. If there's a disparity between who's leading in the early states and who's leading nationally, come January of 2008, my prediction is that the national frontrunner is more likely to win than the early state frontrunner. However, if the national frontrunner and the early state frontrunner are the same person — well, then there's essentially no question that that person will be the nominee. Of course, there are also plenty of in-between scenarios. As in, the early states split between two or three candidates (a bigger possibility this year than others). Or, one candidate wins all three contests, but the result is very close in each. My point is simply that the gap between Rudy Giuliani's national lead and his early state lagging is closing up. February 5, though, is still where the action is. Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis |
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