McCain Death Watch: Quinnipiac Edition

by Ryan Sager
Wed, 27 Jun 2007 at 11:08 AM
updated Wed, 27 Jun 2007 at 11:13 AM

Quinnipiac has released the latest version of its swing-state poll, covering Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. While the results are interesting, here's what I find more interesting: They've started adding a category to the GOP primary results labeled, "WITHOUT McCAIN." (See question 2.)

Now, to those of you who don't spend all your days reading polls like this, the "without" breakdowns are usually reserved for candidates who probably won't be in the race, such as "without Gingrich," "without Rice," etc. This, as far as I know, is the first instance of a major polling organization starting to look publicly at a race without John McCain. (The result, by the way, Rudy Giuliani picks up 6 points in Florida, 6 points in Ohio, and 5 points in Pennsylvania.)

The other Republican-primary headline out of the poll: Mr. Thompson has tied or surpassed Mr. McCain in all three swing states.

The primary results after the jump...

REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
FL OH PA

Brownback - - 1%
Gilmore - - 1
Gingrich 7 6 5
Giuliani 27 25 29
Huckabee 1 2 1
Hunter - - -
McCain 13 16 15
Paul 2 - -
Romney 6 7 3
Tancredo 1 - -
Thompson, F. 21 17 15
Thompson, T. 1 1 1
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3
DK/NA 18 22 24

WITHOUT McCAIN (Based on second choice of McCain supporters)

FL OH PA

Brownback - - 1%
Gilmore - - 1
Gingrich 7 7 6
Giuliani 33 31 34
Huckabee 1 3 1
Hunter - - -
Paul 2 - -
Romney 6 8 5
Tancredo 1 - -
Thompson, F. 22 18 17
Thompson, T. 2 1 1
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3
DK/NA 21 26 28

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