McCain Lagging in Home State

by Ryan Sager
Thu, 26 Apr 2007 at 1:15 PM
updated Thu, 26 Apr 2007 at 1:41 PM

John McCain's still in the lead in Arizona, his home state (for those just tuning into American politics), but just barely.

In the latest Arizona State University/KAET TV poll, Mr. McCain leads Rudy Giuliani by only 32%-27%. Mitt Romney comes in at 11% and Fred Thompson at 6% (a rare win for Mr. Romney in the race for third place).

This is a big change from February, when Mr. McCain almost doubled Mr. Giuliani's support, 44%-25% (Mr. Romney was at 6%). Also, I called up the director of the poll, Bruce Merrill, and got the unpublished breakdown of how Independents are breaking — it's not good news for Mr. McCain...

The number of Independents has doubled in Arizona over the last seven years, according to Mr. Merrill, an expert in Arizona politics. And they're single-issue voters: anti-war.

Among Independents who said they would vote in a Republican primary, this was the breakdown:

32% - McCain
20% - Giuliani
8% - Gingrich
5% - Romney
12% - Thompson
22% - Undecided

Mr. McCain still leads among Independents. And he even has a bigger lead over Mr. Giuliani among Independents than he does among Republicans. But it's still not that big a lead.

It's worth remembering that virtually all of the primaries Mr. McCain won in 2000 were either open or crossover primaries, where the senator drew significant support from Independents and Democrats. This time around, he's already less likely to see such support (a competitive Democratic primary season probably means more Independents voting in Democratic primaries — last time around Al Gore was the heir apparent). But, on top of that, his support is fairly weak among Independents — even in his home state — and quite vulnerable to Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Thompson.

So, not good news for the senator, especially if things tighten further. He probably won't lose his home state. But he should be cruising there.

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