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Fred Thompson's Strength

by Ryan Sager
Thu, 29 Mar 2007 at 11:03 AM
updated Thu, 29 Mar 2007 at 11:10 AM

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I've been remiss in not getting to this sooner, but the Zogby America Poll released Monday gives us a fairly interesting look into just from where Fred Thompson's support has been coming.

In the poll of 376 likely Republican primary voters, Mr. Thompson ties the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, at 9%. Rudy Giuliani is in the lead, as always, at 27%. John McCain is in second place at 13%.

So, just what can we tell about where Mr. Thompson's support is coming from? Well, let's look at a chart of how the candidates have been doing over time in the Zogby poll...

In different polls we've seen different answers about Mr. Thompson's support. In the latest national Gallup poll, Messrs. Giuliani and Romney took the biggest hits when Mr. Thompson was added to the poll. In Iowa, Newt Gingrich had his support cut more than in half when Mr. Thompson was added to the poll. Mr. Gingrich also took a big hit in Ohio.

In this Zogby poll, we can't look at Mr. Gingrich's support for a simple reason: They decided to take Mr. Gingrich (and Condi Rice) out of their polls on the assumption that neither is running for president. While, with Condi, I think that makes sense, it's not terribly helpful to have Mr. Gingrich out of the mix.

Regardless, we can look at who's up and who's down otherwise — recognizing, as always, that this is a small sample and very, very early. So, in this latest Zogby poll, Mr. McCain has taken the biggest tumble, 7 percentage points, down to 13% from 20%. Mr. Romney has held steady. And Mr. Thompson — who WAS included in the February Zogby poll — has jumped 9 percentage points.

What does it mean? Well, again, the sample's very small. But taking all the polls we've seen so far and trying to look at them together, I think it's fair to say that Mr. Thompson's support is very wide spread among the Republican base — as in, he seems to be taking from everyone.

So here are my conclusions so far:

* I think Mr. Gingrich's support is most clearly shifting toward Mr. Thompson. These are voters who've been waiting for a conservative "savior" candidate to enter the race. Mr. Thompson at this point seems more likely to do so, and he lacks Mr. Gingrich's baggage as a potential general-election candidate.

* Mr. Romney is flagging, and almost off the radar as a national candidate, with or without Mr. Thompson. But, as I've argued, his is the candidacy rendered most obsolete by Mr. Thompson's.

* Mr. McCain, despite his drop in this Zogby poll, still strikes me as the candidate with the most solid support — as in, his voters are the ones least likely to abandon their candidate at the drop of a hat.

* Mr. Giuliani, despite his strength in the polls, should worry significantly about Mr. Thompson. The former Tennessee senator and "Law & Order" DA has the tough-guy image that has drawn people to Mr. Giuliani, yet he comes without a lot of the personal and social-issues baggage.

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