For those who follow Olympic history, John York has become San Francisco’s answer to New York State assembly speaker Sheldon Silver, the man who killed New York’s 2012 Summer Olympics dream. York, the owner of the San Francisco 49ers, could not reach an agreement with the mayor of San Francisco, Gavin Newsom, to build a football facility that would have doubled as the main stadium in San Francisco’s scheme to bring the 2016 summer games to the city by the bay. The stalemate effectively ended San Francisco’s hopes of landing that Olympiad.

In November 2002, when New York and San Francisco were the two remaining bidders for the United States Olympic Committee’s 2012 designation, New York finally beat out San Francisco — largely because of the likelihood it would build a West Side football stadium that could be used as an Olympic venue. At the time, there was a feeling not only that local politicians would deliver a West Side Olympic stadium, but that a New York that was rebuilding after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, was a good bet for the International Olympic Committee’s approval. Moreover, San Francisco’s bid to host the summer games was weakened because USOC delegates weren’t persuaded San Francisco could produce a $409 million surplus from the 2012 Games.

In 1997, San Francisco voters approved a multimillion-dollar expenditure that would go toward the construction of a football facility, replacing Candlestick Park and a nearby mall. That stadium, which would spur the economy, would also be used for the 2012 Olympics. The deal was signed by then San Francisco mayor Willie Brown and the owner of the 49ers at the time, Eddie De Bartolo. Once De Bartolo ran into legal problems, his sister Denise De Bartolo York and her husband, John York, who assumed ownership of the team, showed little interest in the De Bartolo–Brown deal.

It was not until 2005 that the 49ers ownership began to consider the deal again and the possibility of restructuring the agreement to build a stadium village complete with a 65,000-seat football facility, housing, and retail space. The York family pulled the plug on that plan earlier this month and opted instead to relocate their stadium plans to Santa Clara, a city some 40 miles south of San Francisco.

The International Olympic Committee wants two things from a host city: funding and glitz. Considering its distance from San Francisco, Santa Clara lacks the necessary major-city glitz. A successful Olympics needs a main stadium in San Francisco, not Silicon Valley. York could have taken a page from the Olympic playbook of Jets owner Woody Johnson, who apparently agreed to allow the IOC to use his stadium for a couple weeks during the summer of 2012 for the opening and closing ceremonies and other events. Johnson’s own stadium dream ended in June 2005, when Silver voted against spending state dollars for a stadium on Manhattan’s West side.

Silver’s legacy may be that he in part moved the USOC to tighten its restrictions — the committee now requires the certainty of stadium availability as part of the bidding process. Without the 49ers support, San Francisco is basically out of the running. (As recently as last Tuesday city officials were touting a stadium plan that the 49ers organization has since rejected). Chicago, with no concrete stadium plans, is in equally dire straits. Los Angeles, which can benefit from its L.A. Coliseum, is still kicking. The three cities are required to submit a bid by January 22, 2007.

York is not entirely villainous. Inadvertently, the 49ers owner probably saved generations of San Francisco residents from having to pay various taxes for what amounts to a two-week sports orgy. (The IOC requires host cities to pick up any financial shortfalls that may occur.)

Earlier this year, Montreal and Quebec residents finally paid off the debt from the 1976 Summer Olympics. The 2000 Sydney Games were a financial disaster: Most of the venues erected for that Olympiad remain unused and cost Australians millions of a year to maintain. The Athens Games in 2004 were an even greater disaster, leaving left Greeks with billions of dollars in Olympic-related debt. The 2006 Turin Olympics also ran way over budget, and the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics Committee is already experiencing financial woes as venue construction costs continue to skyrocket.

No matter what picture the IOC president, Jacques Rogge, paints and regardless of how NBC Universal and its parent company General Electric spin the two-week competition, financially the Olympics don’t make sense. New Yorkers got lucky in 2005 when Silver denied funding for a West Side stadium. The IOC instead chose London, where city officials have had to adjust the budget as building costs soar.

Losing San Francisco was a big blow to the chairman of the USOC Board of directors, Peter Ueberroth, who seemed determined to have Los Angeles or San Francisco as the American city bidding for the 2016 Olympics. In July, Ueberroth and his board eliminated Houston and Philadelphia from the race. It should come as no surprise that Philadelphia and Houston were sent home: Ueberroth wanted a West Coast city in the end. (It was too hard to eliminate Chicago at such an early stage.)

Four of the 11 members of the USOC’s board of directors, including Ueberroth, live in Los Angeles, and all are also members of the International Olympic Committee. Although Ueberroth’s committee is predominantly based on the West Coast, last spring they chose to look first at non–West Coast cities in their initial tour of potential contenders, giving West Coast bidders more time to prepare proposals.

So it’s down now to Los Angeles and Chicago for the USOC’s designation and each bid has a major flaw. Chicago has no stadium suitable for the opening and closing ceremonies as its renovated Soldier Field was deemed unsatisfactory for the Olympics, and in Los Angeles, the Coliseum will need major renovations to bring it to 21st-century state-of-the-art standards. (Chicago’s backers say they plan to raise $300 million from private investors to build a temporary 95,000-seat Olympic stadium that could be scaled back to a 10,000-seat facility after the games.)

Because Chicago has a stadium problem, Los Angeles is probably in a better position to get the USOC’s nod. But neither Los Angeles nor Chicago may have enough to impress Rogge and the IOC, and this could be the deciding factor in whether Ueberroth and his board go after the 2016 Summer Games. Just as the USOC board stacked the deck against Philadelphia and Houston, unless Chicago has a stadium plan in place by January 22, it’s probably the end of the line for the Windy City, which means Ueberroth and his board may get their wish. Sometime next spring — with a Hollywood ending — Ueberroth will announce that the USOC has selected Los Angeles as the American bid city for the 2016 Summer Olympics. If that happens, judging by Olympics financial history, Chicago residents should be elated to learn they have been spared the financial insanity known as the 2016 Olympics host-city race.